Thresholds for Employment and Unemployment. A Spatial Analysis of German Regional Labour Markets 1992-2000
AbstractChanges in production, employment and unemployment are closely related over the course of the business cycle. However, as exemplified by the laws of Verdoorn (1949, 1993) and Okun (1962, 1970), thresholds seem to be present in the relationship. Due to capacity reserves of the firms, output growth must exceed certain levels for the creation of new jobs or a fall in the unemployment rate. In order to get efficient estimates of these bounds, we take a wide range of information into account. In particular, thresholds for employment and unemployment are determined on the grounds of 180 German regional labour markets. To capture cross section dependencies, a spatial SUR model is built up utilizing the eigenfunction decomposition approach suggested by Griffith (1996, 2000). The results indicate, that minimum output growth sufficient for a rise in employment is below the level which is needed for a simultaneous drop in the unemployment rate. Especially, the thresholds turn out to be about 1.2 and 2.2 percent, respectively. The ordering is related both to demographic changes and institutional settings on the labour market, such as the working of the unemployment benefit system. If spatial effects are not controlled for, the thresholds seem to be overrated.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Kassel, Institute of Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 52/04.
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Papers in Regional Science, Vol. 85 (2006), S. 523-542.
Threshold employment and unemployment; regional labour markets; spatial filtering techniques; spatial SUR analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-02-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-GEO-2005-02-13 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-LAB-2005-02-13 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2005-02-13 (Macroeconomics)
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