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Patterns of Force: System Strength, Terrorism and Civil War

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  • Andreas Freytag

    ()
    (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena)

  • Daniel Meierrieks

    (University of Paderborn)

  • Angela Münch

    ()
    (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena)

  • Friedrich Schneider

    (JKU Linz)

Abstract

We jointly analyze the genesis of terrorism and civil war, providing a simple conceptual framework to explain why violent opposition groups choose distinct forms of violence (i.e., terrorism and open rebellion). We argue that the distinct modes of violent opposition are chosen by violent opposition groups in response to the strengths and weaknesses of the system they challenge. An empirical test of this hypothesis for 103 countries for the period of 1992 to 2004 indeed shows that the socio-economic strength and stability of a system is positively related to the likelihood of terrorism but negatively to incidences of more violent forms of violent opposition. We also show that poor conflict management (as a system weakness) positively impacts the likelihood incidences of more violent modes of violent opposition more likely. Furthermore, we find that system size is positively associated with all analyzed modes of violent opposition.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics in its series Jena Economic Research Papers with number 2010-030.

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Date of creation: 26 Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2010-030

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Keywords: terrorism; civil conflict; system strength;

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  1. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2009. "Repression or Civil War?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 292-97, May.
  2. Zaryab Iqbal & Harvey Starr, 2008. "Bad Neighbors: Failed States and Their Consequences," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(4), pages 315-331, September.
  3. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "What causes terrorism?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 3-27, April.
  4. Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2005. "Does democracy preempt civil wars?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 445-465, June.
  5. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
  6. Alberto Abadie, 2004. "Poverty, Political Freedom, and the Roots of Terrorism," NBER Working Papers 10859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alesina, Alberto & Wacziarg, Romain, 1998. "Openness, country size and government," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 305-321, September.
  8. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  9. William Shughart, 2006. "An analytical history of terrorism, 1945–2000," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 7-39, July.
  10. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  11. Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2008. "Civil Wars and International Trade," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/10149, Sciences Po.
  12. repec:pdn:wpaper:12 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Nitsch, Volker & Schumacher, Dieter, 2004. "Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 423-433, June.
  14. Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard & Mogens Justesen & Robert Klemmensen, 2006. "The political economy of freedom, democracy and transnational terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 289-315, July.
  15. Atin Basuchoudhary & William Shughart, 2010. "On Ethnic Conflict And The Origins Of Transnational Terrorism," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 65-87.
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Cited by:
  1. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2012. "On the Heterogeneity of Terror," IZA Discussion Papers 6596, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Michael Brzoska & Raphael Bossong & Eric van Um, 2011. "Security Economics in the European Context: Implications of the EUSECON Project," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 58, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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