Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of the U.S. Unemployment Rate
AbstractUsing recent results in the measurement error literature, we show that the official U.S. unemployment rate substantially underestimates the true level of unemployment, due to misclassification errors in the labor force status in the Current Population Survey. During the period from January 1996 to August 2011, the corrected monthly unemployment rates are between 1 and 4.4 percentage points (2.1 percentage points on average) higher than the official rates, and are more sensitive to changes in business cycles. The labor force participation rates, however, are not affected by this correction.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 595.
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2012-05-29 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-LMA-2012-05-29 (Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, & Wages)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thierry Magnac & Michael Visser, 1999.
"Transition Models With Measurement Errors,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 466-474, August.
- Stephen R. G. Jones & W. Craig Riddell, .
"The Measurement Of Unemployment: An Empirical Approach,"
Canadian International Labour Network Working Papers
09, McMaster University.
- Stephen R. G. Jones & W. Craig Riddell, 1999. "The Measurement of Unemployment: An Empirical Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 147-162, January.
- Hu, Yingyao, 2008. "Identification and estimation of nonlinear models with misclassification error using instrumental variables: A general solution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 27-61, May.
- Peracchi, Franco & Welch, Finis, 1995. "How representative are matched cross-sections? Evidence from the Current Population Survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 153-179, July.
- Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
- Farber, Henry S, 1999. "Alternative and Part-Time Employment Arrangements as a Response to Job Loss," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages S142-69, October.
- Henry S. Farber, 1999. "Alternative and Part-Time Employment Arrangements as a Response to Job Loss," NBER Working Papers 7002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jung, Philip & Kuhn, Moritz, 2012.
"Earnings losses and labor mobility over the life-cycle,"
40287, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Philip Jung, 2013. "Earnings losses and labor mobility over the lifecycle," 2013 Meeting Papers 771, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jung, Philip & Kuhn, Moritz, 2012. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility over the Lifecycle," IZA Discussion Papers 6835, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (None) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask None to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.