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Negative Bubbles and Unpredictability of Financial Markets: The Asian Currency Crisis in 1997

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Author Info
Kuchiki, Akifumi
Abstract

We obtain the three following conclusions. First, business cycles depend on prices of stocks and primary commodities such as crude oil. Second, stock prices and oil prices generate psychological cycles with different periods. Third, there exist cases of "negative bubble" under certain conditions. Integrating the above results, we can find a role of a government in financial market in developing countries.

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File URL: http://ir.ide.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/2344/136/1/ARRIDE_Discussion_No.065_kuchiki.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2006
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO) in its series IDE Discussion Papers with number 65.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Publication status: Published in IDE Discussion Paper. No. 65. 2006.6
Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper65

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Related research
Keywords: Cycles; Unpredictability; Negative bubbles; Governments; Financial market; Money; Financial crises; Asia;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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