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Evaluating the market potential of innovations: A structured survey of diffusion models

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Author Info
Alexander Frenzel Baudisch () (Max-Planck-Institute for Economics, Evolutionary Economics Unit)
Hariolf Grupp (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research)

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Abstract

This paper provides a systematic methodology to identify general innovation diffusion patterns in a given case study: First, an analytical framework is introduced which structures a review of innovation diffusion research. This framework may be used to structure the analysis of a case study. Second, a classification of innovation diffusion models is developed by focusing on the analytical hypotheses and stylized facts, which they assume. This categorization allows selecting appropriate models for a given case study based on the matching of the model's hypotheses and case study's characteristics. This provides an structured approach to allow innovators to evaluate ex-ante the market potential and the diffusion process, i.e. commercial success of their new product or practice. The paper concludes with critical recommendations on the use of innovation diffusion models. Based on the systematic approach to survey diffusion models, future research opportunities are outlined.

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Paper provided by Friedrich-Schiller-Universit�t Jena, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakult�t in its series Jenaer Schriften zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft with number 21/2006.

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Date of creation: 11 Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:jen:jenasw:2006-21

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Related research
Keywords: Innovation diffusion model case study methodology taxonomy forecasting

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  1. Reinganum, Jennifer F, 1981. "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Joseph Farrell & Garth Saloner, 1985. "Standardization, Compatibility, and Innovation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(1), pages 70-83, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Haldar, Sudeep & Rao, Vithala R, 1998. "A Micro-analytic Threshold Model for the Timing of First Purchases of Durable Goods," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 959-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Deroian, Frederic, 2002. "Formation of social networks and diffusion of innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 835-846, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lundvall, Bengt-Ake & Johnson, Bjorn & Andersen, Esben Sloth & Dalum, Bent, 2002. "National systems of production, innovation and competence building," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 213-231, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1994. "Systems Competition and Network Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 93-115, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Beise, Marian, 2004. "Lead markets: country-specific drivers of the global diffusion of innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6-7), pages 997-1018, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Parker, Philip M., 1994. "Aggregate diffusion forecasting models in marketing: A critical review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 353-380, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Richard R Nelson & Alexander Peterhansl & Bhaven Sampat, 2004. "Why and how innovations get adopted: a tale of four models," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(5), pages 679-699, October.
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