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Evaluating the market potential of innovations: A structured survey of diffusion models

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  • Alexander Frenzel Baudisch

    ()
    (Max-Planck-Institute for Economics, Evolutionary Economics Unit)

  • Hariolf Grupp

    (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research)

Abstract

This paper provides a systematic methodology to identify general innovation diffusion patterns in a given case study: First, an analytical framework is introduced which structures a review of innovation diffusion research. This framework may be used to structure the analysis of a case study. Second, a classification of innovation diffusion models is developed by focusing on the analytical hypotheses and stylized facts, which they assume. This categorization allows selecting appropriate models for a given case study based on the matching of the model's hypotheses and case study's characteristics. This provides an structured approach to allow innovators to evaluate ex-ante the market potential and the diffusion process, i.e. commercial success of their new product or practice. The paper concludes with critical recommendations on the use of innovation diffusion models. Based on the systematic approach to survey diffusion models, future research opportunities are outlined.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät in its series Jenaer Schriften zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft with number 21/2006.

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Date of creation: 11 Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:jen:jenasw:2006-21

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Related research

Keywords: Innovation diffusion model; case study methodology; taxonomy; forecasting;

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  1. Reinganum, Jennifer F., . "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," Working Papers 312, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  2. Beise, Marian, 2004. "Lead markets: country-specific drivers of the global diffusion of innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6-7), pages 997-1018, September.
  3. Rabik Ar Chatterjee & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 1990. "The Innovation Diffusion Process in a Heterogeneous Population: A Micromodeling Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(9), pages 1057-1079, September.
  4. Sudeep Haldar & Vithala Rao, 1998. "A micro-analytic threshold model for the timing of first purchases of durable goods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 959-974.
  5. Richard R Nelson & Alexander Peterhansl & Bhaven Sampat, 2004. "Why and how innovations get adopted: a tale of four models," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(5), pages 679-699, October.
  6. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Infinite-Horizon Models of Bargaining with One-Sided Incomplete Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1098, David K. Levine.
  7. Lundvall, Bengt-Ake & Johnson, Bjorn & Andersen, Esben Sloth & Dalum, Bent, 2002. "National systems of production, innovation and competence building," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 213-231, February.
  8. Deroian, Frederic, 2002. "Formation of social networks and diffusion of innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 835-846, July.
  9. Parker, Philip M., 1994. "Aggregate diffusion forecasting models in marketing: A critical review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 353-380, September.
  10. Michael L. Katz & Carl Shapiro, 1994. "Systems Competition and Network Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 93-115, Spring.
  11. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
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