How Could Germany Escape the Demographic Trap?
AbstractDemographic change is perceived as a threat for wealth rather than a challenge in Germany. The debate on skilled labor shortage is a proof for this view. The paper surveys the most important German studies on skilled labor shortage. Meanwhile, a consensus on solutions has emerged in academia. Increasing the participation rates of elderly, women and facilitating qualified immigration as well as improving productivity are the mainstream recommendations. The paper provides descriptive statistical evidence that temporary agency work could contribute to solve the skilled labor shortage problem via these four channels. However, it is far from clear that productivity increases are the most important and most sustainable way out of the demographic trap. Against this background the government's demographic strategy is assessed. It turns out that the government has not a coherent strategy yet to solve the demographic issues ahead.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Policy Papers with number 48.
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
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Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
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Web page: http://www.iza.org
Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
- J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
- J4 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2012-12-06 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEM-2012-12-06 (Demographic Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2006. "Technical Change, Job Tasks, and Rising Educational Demands: Looking outside the Wage Structure," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(2), pages 235-270, April.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 2009. "The economics of growth," Open Access publications from University College London http://discovery.ucl.ac.u, University College London.
- Heckman, James J. & Kautz, Tim, 2012.
"Hard evidence on soft skills,"
Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 451-464.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009.
"The Economics of Growth,"
MIT Press Books,
The MIT Press,
edition 1, volume 1, number 9780262012638.
- Spermann, Alexander, 2011. "The New Role of Temporary Agency Work in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 6180, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Karl Brenke, 2010. "Fachkräftemangel kurzfristig noch nicht in Sicht," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 77(46), pages 2-15.
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