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When Can Experimental Evidence Mislead? A Re-Assessment of Canada's Self Sufficiency Project

Author

Listed:
  • Riddell, Chris

    (University of Waterloo)

  • Riddell, W. Craig

    (University of British Columbia, Vancouver)

Abstract

The Self-Sufficiency Project was a well-known welfare-to-work experiment that provided a generous but time-limited financial incentive to leave welfare and enter the workforce. Experimental evidence showed large short-term impacts but no lasting effects. We argue that these conclusions need to be re-assessed. Policy changes implemented during the SSP implied the behavior of the control group did not provide an appropriate counterfactual. We estimate the impacts the financial incentive would have had in a stable policy environment. This re-assessment leads to significant changes in the lessons previously reached. Our study demonstrates that experimental findings need to be interpreted with care.

Suggested Citation

  • Riddell, Chris & Riddell, W. Craig, 2016. "When Can Experimental Evidence Mislead? A Re-Assessment of Canada's Self Sufficiency Project," IZA Discussion Papers 9939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9939
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guy Lacroix & Dany Brouillette, 2011. "Assessing the impact of a wage subsidy for single parents on social assistance," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(4), pages 1195-1221, November.
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    3. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1995. "Assessing the Case for Social Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 85-110, Spring.
    4. Riddell, Chris & Riddell, W. Craig, 2014. "The pitfalls of work requirements in welfare-to-work policies: Experimental evidence on human capital accumulation in the Self-Sufficiency Project," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 39-49.
    5. Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2015. "Evaluating search and matching models using experimental data," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, December.
    6. James Heckman & Neil Hohmann & Jeffrey Smith & Michael Khoo, 2000. "Substitution and Dropout Bias in Social Experiments: A Study of an Influential Social Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(2), pages 651-694.
    7. David Card & Dean R. Hyslop, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of a Time-Limited Earnings Subsidy for Welfare-Leavers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1723-1770, November.
    8. Card, David & Hyslop, Dean R., 2009. "The dynamic effects of an earnings subsidy for long-term welfare recipients: Evidence from the self sufficiency project applicant experiment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 1-20, November.
    9. Charles Michalopoulos & Philip K. Robins, 2001. "Using financial incentives to encourage welfare recipients to become economically self-sufficient," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 105-123.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    welfare-to-work policies; social experiments; Self-Sufficiency Project;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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