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An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters

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  • Esfahani, Hadi Salehi

    ()
    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Mohaddes, Kamiar

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Pesaran, M. Hashem

    ()
    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focuses on short-run implications of a temporary resource discovery. Under certain regularity conditions and assuming a Cobb-Douglas production function, it is shown that (log) oil exports enter the long-run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital (α). The long-run theory is tested using quarterly data on nine major oil economies, six of which are current members of OPEC (Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela), plus Indonesia which is a former member, and Mexico and Norway, which are members of the OECD. Overall, the test results support the long-run theory. The existence of long-run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil income is established for six of the nine economies considered. The exceptions, Mexico and Norway, do not possess sufficient oil reserves for oil income to have lasting impacts on their economies. At their current production rates, the proven oil reserves of Mexico and Norway are expected to last 9 and 10 years respectively, as compared to reserve-production ratios of OPEC members, which lie in the range of 45 to 125 years. For Indonesia, whose share of oil income in GDP has been declining steadily over the past three decades, the theory suggests that the effect of oil income on the economy's steady state growth rate will vanish eventually, and this is indeed confirmed by the results. Sensible estimates of α are also obtained across the six economies with long-run output equations, and impulse responses are provided for the effects of shocks to oil income and foreign output in these economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 6468.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6468

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Related research

Keywords: growth models; long run and error correcting relations; major oil exporters; OPEC member countries; oil exports and foreign output shocks;

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References

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  1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1993. "Cointegration and Speed of Convergence to Equilibrium," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2006. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 47, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Francesco Caselli & Tom Cunningham, 2009. "Leader Behavior and the Natural Resource Curse," CEP Discussion Papers dp0913, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 12/12, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  6. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1999. " Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 139-83, June.
  7. Haug, Alfred A., 1996. "Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115.
  8. Christa N. Brunnschweiler & Erwin H. Bulte, 2006. "The Resource Curse Revisited and Revised: A Tale of Paradoxes and Red Herrings," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 06/61, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  9. Mauro, Paolo, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712, August.
  10. Tiago de. V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2011. "Does oil abundance harm growth?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 1181-1184.
  11. Cavalcanti, Tiago V. de V. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2011. "Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 305-318.
  12. A Garratt & K Lee & M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," ESE Discussion Papers 35, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  13. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  14. Carlos Leite & Jens Weidmann, 1999. "Does Mother Nature Corrupt," IMF Working Papers 99/85, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
  16. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Social Capital, Barriers to Production, and Capital Shares: Implications for the Importance of Parameter Heterogeneity from a Nonstationary Panel Approach," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  17. Binder, M. & Pesaran, M.H., 1996. "Stochastic Growth," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9615, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  19. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460, Octomber.
  20. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
  21. Rick van der Ploeg & Tony Venables, 2009. "Symposium on resource rich economies Introduction," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 625-627, October.
  22. Gredenhoff, Mikael & Jacobson, Tor, 2001. "Bootstrap Testing Linear Restrictions on Cointegrating Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 63-72, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Paul Cashin & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2012. "The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 12/255, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Dreger, Christian & Rahmani, Teymur, 2014. "The impact of oil revenues on the Iranian economy and the Gulf states," Discussion Papers 349, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  3. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Valérie Mignon & Audrey Sallenave, 2014. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," Working Papers 2014-01, CEPII research center.
  4. Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "One Hundred Years of Oil Income and the Iranian Economy: A Curse or a Blessing?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4118, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2013. "The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices – Evidence for the MENA Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0448, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  6. Paul Cashin & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi & Maziar Raissi, 2012. "The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/253, International Monetary Fund.

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