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The Dynamics of Social Assistance Receipt: Measurement and Modelling Issues, with an Application to Britain

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  • Cappellari, Lorenzo

    ()
    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Jenkins, Stephen P.

    ()
    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

We model the dynamics of social assistance benefit receipt in Britain using data from the British Household Panel Survey, waves 1–15. First, we discuss definitions of social assistance benefit receipt, and present information about the trends between 1991 and 2005 in the receipt of social assistance benefits, and in annual rates of transition into and out of receipt. Second, we review potential multivariate modelling approaches especially the dynamic random effects probit models that are used in our empirical analysis and, third, discuss sample selection criteria and explanatory variables. Fourth, we present our regression estimation estimates and interpret them. The final section contains a summary of the substantive results, and highlights some lessons concerning application of the analysis for other countries and some methodological issues.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3765.

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Length: 73 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3765

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Keywords: social assistance; welfare benefits; dynamic random effects probit; income dynamics;

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References

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  1. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
  2. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
  3. Paul Gregg & Susan Harkness & Sarah Smith, 2009. "Welfare Reform and Lone Parents in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages F38-F65, 02.
  4. Martin Biewen, 2004. "Measuring State Dependence in Individual Poverty Status: Are there Feedback Effects to Employment Decisions and Household Composition?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 429, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Brewer, Mike & Duncan, Alan & Shephard, Andrew & Suarez, Maria Jose, 2006. "Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 699-720, December.
  6. Hansen, Jörgen & Lofstrom, Magnus & Zhang, Xuelin, 2006. "State Dependence in Canadian Welfare Participation," IZA Discussion Papers 2266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Jenkins, Stephen P., 1999. "Modelling household income dynamics," ISER Working Paper Series 99-01, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  8. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2002. "Modelling Low Income Transitions," IZA Discussion Papers 504, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Stewart, Mark B & Swaffield, Joanna K, 1999. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 23-42, February.
  10. S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
  11. Marco Francesconi & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2007. "The Socioeconomic Consequences of "In-Work" Benefit Reform for British Lone Mothers," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(1).
  12. Arulampalam, Wiji & Stewart, Mark, 2007. "Simplified Implementation of the Heckman Estimator of the Dynamic Probit Model and a Comparison with Alternative Estimators," IZA Discussion Papers 3039, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2008. "Estimating low pay transition probabilities accounting for endogenous selection mechanisms," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(2), pages 165-186.
  14. Hansen, Jörgen & Löfström, Magnus, 2000. "Immigrant Assimilation And Welfare Participation: Do Immigrants Assimilate Into Or Out Of Welfare?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2430, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Enberg, John & Gottschalk, Peter & Wolf, Douglas, 1990. "A random-effects logit model of work-welfare transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 63-75.
  16. Hansen, Jörgen & Lofstrom, Magnus, 2006. "Immigrant-Native Differences in Welfare Participation: The Role of Entry and Exit Rates," IZA Discussion Papers 2261, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Mark B. Stewart, 2002. "The Inter-related Dynamics of Unemployment and Low Pay," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B2-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  18. Paul Gregg & Jane Waldfogel, 2005. "Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(501), pages F1-F6, 02.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Arulampalam, Wiji & Stewart, Mark, 2007. "Simplified Implementation of the Heckman Estimator of the Dynamic Probit Model and a Comparison with Alternative Estimators," IZA Discussion Papers 3039, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Immervoll, Herwig, 2009. "Minimum-Income Benefits in OECD Countries: Policy Design, Effectiveness and Challenges," IZA Discussion Papers 4627, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Francesco Devicienti, 2011. "Estimating poverty persistence in Britain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 657-686, May.
  4. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2009. "The dynamics of social assistance benefit receipt in Britain," ISER Working Paper Series 2009-29, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  5. Carlos Gradín & Olga Cantó, 2009. "Why are child poverty rates so persistently high in Spain?," Working Papers 123, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  6. Frédéric Gaspart & Anne-Claire Thomas, 2012. "Does poverty trap rural Malagasy households?," Working Papers DT/2012/07, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  7. Regina T. Riphahn & Christoph Wunder, 2013. "State Dependence in Welfare Receipt: Transitions Before and After a Reform," CESifo Working Paper Series 4485, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Ha Vu, 2012. "The Relationship between Labor Market Conditions and Welfare Receipt in Australia: A Stock-Flow Analysis," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-573, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  9. Boll, Christina & Leppin, Julian Sebastian, 2013. "Unterwertige Beschäftigung von Akademikerinnen und Akademikern: Umfang, Ursachen, Einkommenseffekte und Beitrag zur geschlechtsspezifischen Lohnlücke," HWWI Policy Papers 75, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).

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