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On the Role of Counterfactuals in Inferring Causal Effects of Treatments

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Author Info
Kluve, Jochen () (Alfred Weber Institute, University of Heidelberg and IZA, Bonn)
Abstract

Causal inference in the empirical sciences is based on counterfactuals. This paper presents the counterfactual account of causation in terms of Lewis's possible-world semantics, and reformulates the statistical potential outcome framework and its underlying assumptions using counterfactual conditionals. I discuss varieties of causally meaningful counterfactuals for the case of a finite number of treatments, and illustrate these using a simple set-theoretical framework. The paper proceeds to examine proximity relations between possible worlds, and discusses implications for empirical practice.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 354.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp354

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Related research
Keywords: Causation; counterfactuals; possible worlds; treatment effect;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
B30 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Thought: Individuals - - - General
C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Other
Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Heckman, J.J. & Hotz, V.J., 1988. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods For Estimating The Impact Of Social Programs: The Case Of Manpower Training," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-12, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
    Other versions:
  2. James J. Heckman, 1991. "Randomization and Social Policy Evaluation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0107, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. James J. Heckman, 2000. "Causal Parameters And Policy Analysis In Economics: A Twentieth Century Retrospective," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 45-97, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. J.D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens & D.B. Rubin, 1993. "Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1972. "Structural Equation Methods in the Social Sciences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 979-1001, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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