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The American High School Graduation Rate: Trends and Levels

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  • James J. Heckman

    () (University of Chicago and IZA)

  • Paul A. LaFontaine

    () (American Bar Association)

Abstract

This paper uses multiple data sources and a unified methodology to estimate the trends and levels of the U.S. high school graduation rate. Correcting for important biases that plague previous calculations, we establish that (a) the true high school graduation rate is substantially lower than the official rate issued by the National Center for Educational Statistics; (b) it has been declining over the past 40 years; (c) majority/minority graduation rate differentials are substantial and have not converged over the past 35 years; (d) the decline in high school graduation rates occurs among native populations and is not solely a consequence of increasing proportions of immigrants and minorities in American society; (e) the decline in high school graduation explains part of the recent slowdown in college attendance; and (f) the pattern of the decline of high school graduation rates by gender helps to explain the recent increase in male-female college attendance gaps.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3216.

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Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3216

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Related research

Keywords: high school dropout rate; high school graduation rates; educational attainment;

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References

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  1. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz & Ilyana Kuziemko, 2006. "The Homecoming of American College Women: The Reversal of the College Gender Gap," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 133-156, Fall.
  2. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2005. "Rising Wage Inequality: The Role of Composition and Prices," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2096, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Lance Lochner & Enrico Moretti, 2004. "The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 155-189, March.
  4. James J. Heckman & Paul A. LaFontaine, 2006. "Bias-Corrected Estimates of GED Returns," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 661-700, July.
  5. Bruce Western & Becky Pettit, 2000. "Incarceration and racial inequality in men's employment," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 54(1), pages 3-16, October.
  6. Donald S. Kenkel & Dean R. Lillard & Alan D. Mathios, 2006. "The Roles of High School Completion and GED Receipt in Smoking and Obesity," NBER Working Papers 11990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. James J. Heckman & Yona Rubinstein, 2001. "The Importance of Noncognitive Skills: Lessons from the GED Testing Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 145-149, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pierre Lefebvre & Philip Merrigan, 2010. "Labour Outcomes of Graduates and Dropouts of High School and Post-secondary Education: Evidence for Canadian 24- to 26-year-olds in 2005," Cahiers de recherche 1045, CIRPEE.
  2. Flavio Cunha & James Heckman, 2007. "The Evolution of Inequality, Heterogeneity and Uncertainty in Labor Earnings in the U.S. Economy," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-032, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. James J. Heckman & Lance J. Lochner & Petra E. Todd, 2008. "Earnings Functions and Rates of Return," NBER Working Papers 13780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Holzer, Harry J., 2008. "Workforce Development as an Antipoverty Strategy: What Do We Know? What Should We Do?," IZA Discussion Papers 3776, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. David J. Deming & Justine S. Hastings & Thomas J. Kane & Douglas O. Staiger, 2011. "School Choice, School Quality and Postsecondary Attainment," NBER Working Papers 17438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. David Deming & Susan Dynarski, 2008. "The Lengthening of Childhood," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 71-92, Summer.
  7. Dionissi Aliprantis, 2011. "Assessing the evidence on neighborhood effects from moving to opportunity," Working Paper 1122, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  8. Emanuelle Bourbeau & Pierre Lefebvre & Philip Merrigan, 2011. "Provincial Returns to Education for 21 to 35 year-olds: Results from the 1991-2006 Canadian Analytic Censuses Files," Cahiers de recherche 1106, CIRPEE.
  9. Rucker C. Johnson, 2011. "Long-run Impacts of School Desegregation & School Quality on Adult Attainments," NBER Working Papers 16664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Angela Lee Duckworth & Kelly M. Allred, 2012. "Temperament in the Classroom," Working Papers 2012-003, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  11. James J. Heckman & Paul A. LaFontaine & Pedro L. Rodriguez, 2008. "Taking the Easy Way Out: How the GED Testing Program Induces Students to Drop Out," Working Papers 200829, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  12. Joseph G. Altonji & Prashant Bharadwaj & Fabian Lange, 2008. "Changes in the Characteristics of American Youth: Implications for Adult Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 13883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Dylan Conger & Mark C. Long & Patrice Iatarola, 2009. "Explaining race, poverty, and gender disparities in advanced course-taking," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 555-576.
  14. Timothy J. Bartik, 2009. "How Policymakers Should Deal with the Delayed Benefits of Early Childhood Programs," Upjohn Working Papers 09-150, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  15. Donata Bessey & Uschi Backes-Gellner, 2008. "Dropping out and revising educational decisions: Evidence from vocational education," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0040, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).

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