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The American High School Graduation Rate: Trends and Levels

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Author Info
James J. Heckman () (University of Chicago and IZA)
Paul A. LaFontaine () (American Bar Association)

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Abstract

This paper uses multiple data sources and a unified methodology to estimate the trends and levels of the U.S. high school graduation rate. Correcting for important biases that plague previous calculations, we establish that (a) the true high school graduation rate is substantially lower than the official rate issued by the National Center for Educational Statistics; (b) it has been declining over the past 40 years; (c) majority/minority graduation rate differentials are substantial and have not converged over the past 35 years; (d) the decline in high school graduation rates occurs among native populations and is not solely a consequence of increasing proportions of immigrants and minorities in American society; (e) the decline in high school graduation explains part of the recent slowdown in college attendance; and (f) the pattern of the decline of high school graduation rates by gender helps to explain the recent increase in male-female college attendance gaps.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3216.

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Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3216

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Related research
Keywords: high school dropout rate; high school graduation rates; educational attainment;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz & Ilyana Kuziemko, 2006. "The Homecoming of American College Women: The Reversal of the College Gender Gap," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 133-156, Fall.
    Other versions:
  2. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2005. "Rising Wage Inequality: The Role of Composition and Prices," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2096, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Lance Lochner & Enrico Moretti, 2004. "The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 155-189, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Bruce Western & Becky Pettit, 2000. "Incarceration and racial inequality in men's employment," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 54(1), pages 3-16, October.
  5. James J. Heckman & Paul LaFontaine, 2006. "Bias Corrected Estimates of GED Returns," NBER Working Papers 12018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Donald Kenkel & Dean Lillard & Alan Mathios, 2006. "The Roles of High School Completion and GED Receipt in Smoking and Obesity," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 635-660, July. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. James J. Heckman & Yona Rubinstein, 2001. "The Importance of Noncognitive Skills: Lessons from the GED Testing Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 145-149, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Flavio Cunha & James Heckman, 2007. "The Evolution of Inequality, Heterogeneity and Uncertainty in Labor Earnings in the U.S. Economy," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-032, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. James J. Heckman & Lance J. Lochner & Petra E. Todd, 2008. "Earnings Functions and Rates of Return," NBER Working Papers 13780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Holzer, Harry J., 2008. "Workforce Development as an Antipoverty Strategy: What Do We Know? What Should We Do?," IZA Discussion Papers 3776, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  4. David Deming & Susan Dynarski, 2008. "The Lengthening of Childhood," NBER Working Papers 14124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. James J. Heckman & Paul A. LaFontaine & Pedro L. Rodriguez, 2008. "Taking the Easy Way Out: How the GED Testing Program Induces Students to Drop Out," NBER Working Papers 14044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Joseph G. Altonji & Prashant Bharadwaj & Fabian Lange, 2008. "Changes in the Characteristics of American Youth: Implications for Adult Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 13883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Timothy J. Bartik, 2009. "How Policymakers Should Deal with the Delayed Benefits of Early Childhood Programs," Staff Working Papers 09-150, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Donata Bessey & Uschi Backes-Gellner, 2008. "Dropping out and revising educational decisions: Evidence from vocational education," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0040, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU). [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.

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