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Unemployment and Transitions in the Turkish Labor Market: Evidence from Individual Level Data

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Author Info

  • Tasci, H. Mehmet

    ()
    (Balikesir University)

  • Tansel, Aysit

    ()
    (Middle East Technical University)

Abstract

This paper provides a systematic analysis of the determinants of transitions in the Turkish labor market by using the Household Labor Force Survey (HLFS) panel data of 2000 and 2001. We provide two types of evidence. First, we compute annual transition probabilities between the labor market states of employment, unemployment and out-of-the labor force under Markovian assumptions by gender and rural-urban residence and marital status. Transition probabilities are used to analyze the differences in unemployment rates of these groups. Second, we present estimates of gender-specific multinomial logit models to analyze the determinants of men's and women's transition probabilities across labor market states. We find that urban women have higher unemployment rates than urban men because they have lower probability of exiting unemployment for a job and higher probability of exiting employment for unemployment. Non-married men and women's unemployment rates are higher than married men and women's. This may be attributed to the higher probability of non-married men and women's to lose a job. Increases in education level are found to decrease the probability of losing a job. University graduates of two-year and over are more likely to find employment compared to non-graduates. Younger individuals are more likely to lose a job but older individuals are less likely to find a job from unemployment. In provinces with high unemployment the probability of obtaining a job is lower from unemployment. The findings indicate negative duration dependence for women, but not for men. Men improve their chances of obtaining a job if they use newspapers or worker agents.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1663.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1663

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Keywords: panel data; unemployment; transition probabilities; gender; Turkey;

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References

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  1. Louise Grogan, 2000. "Worker Flows in Russia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute 00-008/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. L Bellmann & S Estrin & H Lehmann & Jonathan Wadsworth, 1992. "The Eastern German Labour Market in Transition: Gross Flow Estimates from Panel Data," CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE dp0102, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Foley, M.C., 1997. "Labor Market Dynamics in Russia," Papers, Yale - Economic Growth Center 780, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  4. Larry DeBoer & Michael C. Seeborg, 1989. "The unemployment rates of men and women: A transition probability analysis," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 42(3), pages 404-414, April.
  5. Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Labor Market Dynamics in Russia," Working Papers, Economic Growth Center, Yale University 780, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
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Cited by:
  1. Nan Li & Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Emine Boz, 2010. "Labor Market Search in Emerging Economies," 2010 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 255, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Deger Eryar & Hasan Tekguc, 2012. "Gender Effect in Explaining the Mobility Patterns in the Labor Market: A Case Study from Turkey," Working Papers, Mardin Artuklu Univeristy, Department of Economics 2012-01, Mardin Artuklu Univeristy, Department of Economics.
  3. Fares, Jean & Tiongson, Erwin R., 2007. "Youth unemployment, labor market transitions, and scarring : evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2001-04," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 4183, The World Bank.
  4. Blunch, Niels-Hugo & Sulla, Victor, 2011. "The Financial Crisis, Labor Market Transitions and Earnings: A Gendered Panel Data Analysis for Serbia," IZA Discussion Papers 6151, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Ceyhun Elgin & Tolga Umut Kuzubas, 2012. "Wage-Productivity Gap in Turkish Manufacturing Sector," Working Papers, Bogazici University, Department of Economics 2012/03, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  6. Heshmati, Almas, 2007. "Labor Market Policy Options of the Kurdistan Regional Government," IZA Discussion Papers 3247, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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