What Might Central Banks Lose or Gain in Case of Euro Adoption – A GARCH-Analysis of Money Market Rates for Sweden, Denmark and the UK
AbstractThis study deals with the question whether the central banks of Sweden, Denmark and the UK can really influence short-term money markets and thus, would lose this influence in case of Euro adoption. We use a GARCH-M-GED model with daily money market rates. The model reveals the co-movement between the Euribor and the shortterm interest rates in these three countries. A high degree of co-movement might be seen as an argument for a weak impact of the central bank on its money markets. But this argument might only hold for tranquil times. Our approach reveals, in addition, whether there is a specific reaction of the money markets in turbulent times. Our finding is that the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) has indeed a significant impact on the three money market rates, and there is no specific benefit for these countries to stay outside the Euro area. However, the GARCH-M-GED model further reveals risk divergence and unstable volatilities of risk in the case of adverse monetary shocks to the economy for Sweden and Denmark, compared to the Euro area. We conclude that the danger of adverse monetary developments cannot be addressed by a common monetary policy for these both countries, and this can be seen as an argument to stay outside the Euro area
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 9.
Date of creation: Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Euro adoption; EMS; money markets; interest rates; GARCH-M-GED models; international financial markets;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-07-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-07-13 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2011-07-13 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-07-13 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-07-13 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Economidou, Claire & Kool, Clemens, 2009.
"European economic integration and (a)symmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations,"
Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 778-787, July.
- C.J.M. Kool & C. Economidou, 2007. "European economic integration and (A)symmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Working Papers 07-24, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Ulf Söderström, 2008.
"Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model,"
NBER Working Papers
14519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 7062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Working Paper Series 227, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009.
"Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.
- Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Foreign Exchange Risk in New EU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp898, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
- Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2010. "The Extreme Risk Problem for Monetary Policies of the Euro-Candidates," IWH Discussion Papers 12, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008.
"Business Cycles in the Euro Area,"
NBER Working Papers
14529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the euro Area," Working Papers ECARES 2008_040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- J James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2010.
"Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?,"
10-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2009. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Economics Series Working Papers 442, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Jacques Mazier & Sophie Saglio, 2008. "Interdependency and adjustments in the European Union," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 17-44.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2013. "Ready for euro? Empirical study of the actual monetary policy independence in Poland," Working Papers 2013-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hubert Gabrisch).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.