Did the Crisis Affect Potential Output?
AbstractConventional Phillips-curve models that are used to estimate the output gap detect a substantial decline in potential output due to the present crisis. Using a multivariate state space model, we show that this result does not hold if the long run role of excess liquidity (that we estimate endogeneously) for inflation is taken into account.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 9.
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
output gap; liquidity; state space models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-05-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2010-05-02 (Macroeconomics)
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