The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach
AbstractWhile the long run relation between money and inflation is well established, empirical evidence on the adjustment to the long run equilibrium is very heterogeneous. In this paper we show, that the development of US consumer price inflation between 1960Q1 and 2005Q4 is strongly driven by money overhang. To this end, we use a multivariate state space framework that substantially expands the traditional vector error correction approach. This approach allows us to estimate the persistent components of velocity and GDP. A sign restriction approach is subsequently used to identify the structural shocks to the signal equations of the state space model, that explain money growth, inflation and GDP growth. We also account for the possibility that measurement error exhibited by simple-sum monetary aggregates causes the consequences of monetary shocks to be improperly identified by using a Divisia monetary aggregate. Our findings suggest that when the money is measured using a reputable index number, the quantity theory holds for the United States.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 7.
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Divisia money; state space decomposition; sign restrictions;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-30 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2011-04-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-04-30 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen, 2010. "Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements," IWH Discussion Papers 2, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
- Kelly, Logan & Barnett, William A. & Keating, John W., 2010.
"Rethinking the Liquidity Puzzle: Application of a New Measure of the Economic Money Stock,"
22085, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kelly, Logan J. & Barnett, William A. & Keating, John W., 2011. "Rethinking the liquidity puzzle: Application of a new measure of the economic money stock," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 768-774, April.
- Kelly, Logan & Barnett, William A. & Keating, John, 2010. "Rethinking the liquidity puzzle: application of a new measure of the economic money stock," MPRA Paper 22087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- William Barnett & Logan Kelly & John Keating, 2010. "Rethinking the Liquidity Puzzle: Application of a New Measure of the Economic Money Stock," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201002, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2010.
- Logan Kelly & William Barnett & John Keating, 2010. "Rethinking the Liquidity Puzzle: Application of a New Measure of the Economic Money Stock," Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1001, UWRF - Center for Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, University of Wisconsin - River Falls.
- Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen & Logan J. Kelly, 2012. "Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters," IWH Discussion Papers 6, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
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