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The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach

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  • Makram El-Shagi
  • Sebastian Giesen
  • Logan J. Kelly

Abstract

While the long run relation between money and inflation is well established, empirical evidence on the adjustment to the long run equilibrium is very heterogeneous. In this paper we show, that the development of US consumer price inflation between 1960Q1 and 2005Q4 is strongly driven by money overhang. To this end, we use a multivariate state space framework that substantially expands the traditional vector error correction approach. This approach allows us to estimate the persistent components of velocity and GDP. A sign restriction approach is subsequently used to identify the structural shocks to the signal equations of the state space model, that explain money growth, inflation and GDP growth. We also account for the possibility that measurement error exhibited by simple-sum monetary aggregates causes the consequences of monetary shocks to be improperly identified by using a Divisia monetary aggregate. Our findings suggest that when the money is measured using a reputable index number, the quantity theory holds for the United States.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 7.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:7-11

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Keywords: Divisia money; state space decomposition; sign restrictions;

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  1. Logan Kelly & William Barnett & John Keating, 2010. "Rethinking the Liquidity Puzzle: Application of a New Measure of the Economic Money Stock," Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1001, UWRF - Center for Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, University of Wisconsin - River Falls.
  2. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen, 2010. "Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements," IWH Discussion Papers 2, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
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Cited by:
  1. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen & Logan J. Kelly, 2012. "Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters," IWH Discussion Papers 6, Halle Institute for Economic Research.

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