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Stochastische Unternehmensmodelle als Kern innovativer Ratingsysteme

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  • Ulrich Blum
  • Werner Gleißner
  • Frank Leibbrand

Abstract

In our paper, we analyze, based on a new rating methodology, 105 enterprises from Saxony with respect to their ability to meet their financial obligations. It is based on classical financial-statement approach, a direct inclusion of risk and a stochastic simulation model of enterprise development. The results show that the method used is superior to presently used approaches and that it extends our knowledge of enterprise development. On and above its Basel-II applicability, it is a tool to analyze individual development strategies of firms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 6.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:6-05

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Keywords: rating; Saxony; modelling of enterprises; stochastics; risk; sucsess factors;

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  1. Margaret Insley, 2003. "On the option to invest in pollution control under a regime of tradable emissions allowances," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 860-883, November.
  2. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
  3. Ulrich Blum & Frank Leibbrand, 2003. "Rating als Strategie- und Risikoberatung für kleine und mittlere Unternehmen," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(03), pages 26-36, 06.
  4. Weber, Martin & Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Voßmann, Frank, 1998. "Risikomessung im Kreditgeschäft: Eine empirische Analyse bankinterner Ratingverfahren," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 98-45, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  5. Bemmann, Martin, 2005. "Verbesserung der Vergleichbarkeit von Schätzgüteergebnissen von Insolvenzprognosestudien," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 08/05, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  6. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 4250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  1. Insolvenzprognoseverfahren in Wikipedia German ne '')

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