Berücksichtigung von Schätzunsicherheit bei der Kreditrisikobewertung: Vergleich des Value at Risk der Verlustverteilung des Kreditrisikos bei Verwendung von Bootstrapping und einem asymptotischen Ansatz
AbstractFor credit risk assessment, probability of default and correlation have to be estimated simultaneously. However, these estimates are uncertain. To assess this uncertainty the literature has discussed the use of asymptotic confidence regions. This kind of region though needs a long credit history for exact assessment. An alternative method to generate a confidence region for a short credit history is bootstrapping. Hence, it could be more appropriate to assess estimation uncertainty with bootstrapping than with asymptotic methods if only a short credit history is available. Based on a simulation study, it is analyzed how many periods should be available for assessing credit risk – taking account of estimation uncertainty – if bootstrapping and a Wald confidence region shall achieve similar results. This article shows that more than 100 cycles have to be available for similar results.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 3.
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
confidence region; credit portfolio risk; estimation uncertainty; bootstrapping;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-02-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-ORE-2009-02-14 (Operations Research)
- NEP-RMG-2009-02-14 (Risk Management)
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