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Exploring the Economic Convergence in the EU New Member States by Using Nonparametric Models

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  • Monica Raileanu Szeles

Abstract

This paper analyzes the process of real economic convergence in the New Member States (NMS) bein g formerly centrally planned economies, using nonparametric methods instead of conventional parametric measurement tools like beta and sigma models. This methodological framework allows the examining of the relative income distribution in different periods of time, the number of modes of the density distribution, the existence of “convergence clubs” in the distribution and the hypothesis of convergence at a single point in time. The modality tests (e.g. the ASH-WARPing procedure) and stochastic kernel are nonparametric techniques used in the empirical part of the study to examine the income distribution in the NMS area. Additionally, random effects panel regressions are used, but only for comparison reasons. The main findings of the paper are the bimodality of the income density distribution over time and across countries, and the presence of convergence clubs in the income distribution from 1995 to 2008. The findings suggest a lack of absolute convergence in the long term (1995-2008) and also when looking only from 2003 onwards. The paper concludes that, in comparison with the parametrical approach, the nonparametric one gives a deeper, real and richer perspective on the process of real convergence in the NMS area.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 2.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:2-11

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Keywords: real convergence; nonparametric models; stochastic kernel; modality;

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  1. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September.
  2. Isaias Hazarmabeth Salgado-Ugarte & Makoto Shimizu & Toru Taniuchi, 1996. "ASH, WARPing, and kernel density estimation for univariate data," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(26).
  3. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-69, July.
  4. Johnson, Paul A., 2000. "A nonparametric analysis of income convergence across the US states," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 219-223, November.
  5. Giuseppe Arbia & Roberto Basile & Gianfranco Piras, 2006. "Analyzing Intra-Distribution Dynamics: A Reappraisal," ERSA conference papers ersa06p262, European Regional Science Association.
  6. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
  7. Isaias Hazarmabeth Salgado-Ugarte & Makoto Shimizu & Toru Taniuchi, 1996. "Practical rules for bandwidth selection in univariate density estimation," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(27).
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