Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements
AbstractWhile the long run relation between money and inflation is well established, empirical evidence on the adjustment to the long run equilibrium is very heterogeneous. In the present paper we use a multivariate state space framework, that substantially expands the traditional vector error correction approach, to analyze the short run impact of money on prices. We contribute to the literature in three ways: First, we distinguish changes in velocity of money that are due to institutional developments and thus do not induce inflationary pressure, and changes that reflect transitory movements in money demand. This is achieved with a newly developed multivariate unobserved components decomposition. Second, we analyze whether the high volatility of the transmission from monetary pressure to inflation follows some structure, i.e., if the parameter regime can assumed to be constant. Finally, we use our model to illustrate the consequences of the monetary policy of the Fed that has been employed to mitigate the impact of the financial crisis, simulating different exit strategy scenarios.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 2.
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
velocity; multivariate state space model; inflation; money;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-03-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-03-06 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2010-03-06 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-03-06 (Monetary Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen & Logan J. Kelly, 2011. "The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 7, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
- Svatopluk Kapounek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Implementation in the Eurozone - the Concept of Endogenous Money," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2011-12, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hubert Gabrisch).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.