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Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements

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  • Makram El-Shagi
  • Sebastian Giesen

Abstract

While the long run relation between money and inflation is well established, empirical evidence on the adjustment to the long run equilibrium is very heterogeneous. In the present paper we use a multivariate state space framework, that substantially expands the traditional vector error correction approach, to analyze the short run impact of money on prices. We contribute to the literature in three ways: First, we distinguish changes in velocity of money that are due to institutional developments and thus do not induce inflationary pressure, and changes that reflect transitory movements in money demand. This is achieved with a newly developed multivariate unobserved components decomposition. Second, we analyze whether the high volatility of the transmission from monetary pressure to inflation follows some structure, i.e., if the parameter regime can assumed to be constant. Finally, we use our model to illustrate the consequences of the monetary policy of the Fed that has been employed to mitigate the impact of the financial crisis, simulating different exit strategy scenarios.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 2.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:2-10

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Keywords: velocity; multivariate state space model; inflation; money;

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Cited by:
  1. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen & Logan J. Kelly, 2011. "The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 7, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Svatopluk Kapounek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Implementation in the Eurozone - the Concept of Endogenous Money," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2011-12, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.

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