Signaling Currency Crises in South Africa
AbstractCurrency crises episodes of 1996, 1998, and 2001 are used to identify common country specific causes of currency crises in South Africa. The paper identifies crises by the use of an Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index as introduced by Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz (1996). It extends the Signals Approach introduced by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996, 1998) by developing a composite indicator in order to measure the evolution of currency crisis risk in South Africa. The analysis considers the standard suspects from international currency crises and country specifics as identified by the Myburgh Commission (2002) and current literature as potentially relevant indicators.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 19.
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
signals approach; currency crises; South Africa;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2006-11-25 (Africa)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 0571, European Central Bank.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, .
"Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are Twins?,"
EPRU Working Paper Series
99-20, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
- Glick, R. & Hutchison, M., 1999. "Banking and Currency Crises: How Common are Twins?," Papers pb99-07, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
- Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises: how common are twins?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 99-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Libor Krkoska, 2001. "Assessing Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Central Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 41-55.
- Hali J. Edison, 2003.
"Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
- Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
- Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999.
"Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1.
- Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
- Pavan Ahluwalia, 1999. "Discriminating Contagion," IMF Working Papers 00/14, International Monetary Fund.
- Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
- Ranil Salgado & Luca Antonio Ricci & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1986.
"Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
- Ranil Salgado & Jahangir Aziz & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Steven B. Kamin & John W. Schindler & Shawna L. Samuel, 2001. "The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 711, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003.
"Predicting emerging market currency crashes,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
- Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
- Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Diemo Dietrich & Tobias Knedlik & Axel Lindner, 2011. "Central and Eastern European countries in the global financial crisis: a typical twin crisis?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 415-432, April.
- María José Gil-Moltó & Joanna Poyago-Theotoky & Vasileios Zikos, 2006. "R&D policy and privatization in a mixed oligopoly," Discussion Paper Series 2006_25, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
- Andrew stuart Duncan & Guangling"dave" Liu, 2009.
"Modelling South African Currency Crises As Structural Changes In The Volatility Of The Rand,"
South African Journal of Economics,
Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 363-379, 09.
- Andrew S Duncan & Guangling D Liu, 2009. "Modelling South African Currency Crises as Structural Changes in the Volatility of the Rand," Working Papers 140, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Mete Feridun, 2006. "Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Application of Signals Approach to Turkey," Discussion Paper Series 2006_26, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2006.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hubert Gabrisch).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.