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Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?

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  • Makram El-Shagi

Abstract

The present paper compares expected inflation to (econometric) inflation forecasts based on a number of forecasting techniques from the literature using a panel of ten industrialized countries during the period of 1988 to 2007. To capture expected inflation we develop a recursive filtering algorithm which extracts unexpected inflation from real interest rate data, even in the presence of diverse risks and a potential Mundell-Tobin-effect. The extracted unexpected inflation is compared to the forecasting errors of ten econometric forecasts. Beside the standard AR(p) and ARMA(1,1) models, which are known to perform best on average, we also employ several Phillips curve based approaches, VAR, dynamic factor models and two simple model avering approaches.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 16.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:16-09

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Keywords: inflation expectations; rational expectations; inflation forecasting;

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