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Der Einfluss der US-amerikanischen Konjunktur auf Deutschland und die Europäische Union - eine Untersuchung mit VAR-Modellen

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  • Klaus Weyerstraß
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    Abstract

    Im Zusammenhang mit der jüngsten konjunkturellen Schwächephase wurde häufig argumentiert, dass Deutschland stärker von der konjunkturellen Situation in den USA abhängt als andere europäische Staaten. Die hier dargestellten Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich konjunkturelle Impulse aus den USA auf Deutschland auswirken. Es kann jedoch nicht darauf geschlossen werden, dass die im europäischen Vergleich besonders starke konjunkturelle Eintrübung in Deutschland im Jahr 2001 vor allem auf außenwirtschaftliche Ursachen zurück geführt werden kann, da sich im Zeitraum 1994 bis 2001 die Auswirkungen konjunktureller Impulse aus den USA auf Deutschland nicht von jenen auf die übrigen Staaten der Europäischen Union unterscheiden. Die empirischen Resultate zeigen zudem, dass sich konjunkturelle Schocks aus den Vereinigten Staaten im Zeitraum 1974 bis 1990 geringfügig stärker auf die Bundesrepublik Deutschland auswirkten als nach der deutschen Vereinigung.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 158.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:158

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    1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    2. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    3. Uwe Hassler, 2001. "Wealth and Consumption - A Multicointegrated Model for the Unified Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 221(1), pages 32-44.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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