Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe

Contents:

Author Info

  • Tobias Knedlik
  • Gregor von Schweinitz

Abstract

European authorities and scholars published proposals on which indicators of macroeconomic imbalances might be used to uncover risks for the sustainability of public debt in the European Union. We test the ability of four proposed sets of indicators to send early-warnings of debt crises using a signals approach for the study of indicators and the construction of composite indicators. We find that a broad composite indicator has the highest predictive power. This fact still holds true if equal weights are used for the construction of the composite indicator in order to reflect the uncertainty about the origin of future crises.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.iwh-halle.de/d/publik/disc/12-11.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 12.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:12-11

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Kleine Märkerstrasse 8, 06108 Halle (Saale)
Phone: (0345) 7753-60
Fax: (0345) 7753-820
Web page: http://www.iwh-halle.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: macroeconomic surveillance; macroeconomic imbalances; economic governance; signals approach; European Union (EU); European Monetary Union (EMU);

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Paolo Manasse & Nouriel Roubini, 2005. "'Rules of Thumb' for Sovereign Debt Crises," International Finance 0509003, EconWPA.
  3. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2011. "Quasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 520-533, September.
  5. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  6. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July.
  7. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute, The.
  8. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
  9. Dermot Hodson, 2011. "The EU Economy: The Eurozone in 2010," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(Supplemen), pages 231-249, 09.
  10. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "Low probability, high impact: Policy making and extreme events," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 111-121.
  11. Beetsma, Roel & Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "An Analysis of the Stability and Growth Pact," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 546-71, October.
  12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
  13. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises - The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
  14. von Hagen, Jurgen & Hammond, George W, 1998. "Regional Insurance against Asymmetric Shocks: An Empirical Study for the European Community," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(3), pages 331-53, June.
  15. Tobias Knedlik & Rolf Scheufele, 2008. "Forecasting Currency Crises: Which Methods Signaled The South African Crisis Of June 2006?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 367-383, 09.
  16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  17. Brüggemann, Axel & Linne, Thomas, 2002. "Are the Central and Eastern European transition countries still vulnerable to a financial crisis? Results from the signals approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  18. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings," MPRA Paper 13917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Amadou N. R. Sy, 2003. "Rating the Rating Agencies: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/122, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Michael Heise, 2011. "Notwendigkeit und Ausgestaltung makroökonomischer Überwachung im Euroraum," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer, vol. 91(1), pages 22-30, January.
  21. Makram El-Shagi & Tobias Knedlik & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2012. "Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 3, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  22. Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2011. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials: Unit Roots and Nonlinear Adjustment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 525-540, 05.
  23. Amadou N. R. Sy & Andrea Pescatori, 2004. "Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/44, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Javier Suarez, 2010. "The Spanish Crisis: Background And Policy Challenges," Working Papers wp2010_1005, CEMFI.
  25. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2013. "The German Model and the European Crisis," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1023-1039, November.
  2. Knedlik, Tobias, 2013. "The European Commission's Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances: The impact of preferences on an early warning system," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80028, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  3. Makram El-Shagi & Tobias Knedlik & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2012. "Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 3, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2012. "Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," IWH Discussion Papers 12, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  5. El-Shagi, Makram & Kelly, Logan & Kelly, Logan, 2013. "Liquidity in the Liquidity Crisis: Evidence from Divisia Monetary Aggregates in Germany and the European Crisis Countries," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79935, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  6. Peter Wierts & Henk van Kerkhoff & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Trade Dynamics in the Euro Area: The role of export destination and composition," DNB Working Papers 354, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:12-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hubert Gabrisch).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.