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A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany

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  • Oliver Holtemöller
  • Maike Irrek
  • Birgit Schultz

Abstract

Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium- or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this paper, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model fea-tures a top-down approach and, as major contribution, uses error correction models to estimate the regional economic development dependent on the national projection. For the medium- and long-term projection of economic activity, we apply a production function approach. We provide a detailed robustness analysis by systematically varying assumptions of the model. Additionally, we explore the effects of different demographic trends on economic development.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 11.

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Date of creation: Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:11-12

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Keywords: regional long-run projection; convergence; demographic change;

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  7. Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2002. "Regional development of employment in eastern Germany. An analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques," ERSA conference papers ersa02p263, European Regional Science Association.
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  10. Udo Ludwig, 2007. "Mittel- und langfristige Wachstumsprojektionen für Ostdeutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 13(6), pages 210-218.
  11. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
  12. Rolf Scheufele & Udo Ludwig, 2009. "Der lange Weg der Konvergenz," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 15(10), pages 400-407.
  13. Reinhold Kosfeld & Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Christian Dreger, 2006. "Regional productivity and income convergence in the unified Germany, 1992-2000," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 755-767.
  14. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
  15. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
  16. Maike Irrek, 2010. "Humankapital im Ost-West-Vergleich: Leichtes Aufholen in den Neuen Bundesländern," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 16(7), pages 337-344.
  17. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 420, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  18. Rolf Scheufele, 2008. "Das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: Eine angebotsseitige Betrachtung," IWH Discussion Papers 9, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
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