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Keeping the Bubble Alive! The Effects of Urban Renewal and Demolition Subsidies in the East German Housing Market

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Author Info
Dominik Weiß
Abstract

German urban renewal programs are favoring the cities in the Eastern part since the re-unification in 1990. This was accompanied additionally by attractive tax incentives, designed as an accelerated declining balance method of depreciation for housing investments during the late 1990s. The accumulated needs for comfortable housing after 40 years of a disastrous housing policy of the GDR era were generally accepted as justification for the subvention policy. But various subsidies and tax incentives caused a construction boom, false allocations, and a price bubble in Eastern Germany. After recognizing that the expansion of housing supply was not in line with the demographic development and that high vacancy rates were jeopardizing housing companies and their financial backers, policy changed in 2001. Up to now, the government provides demolition grants to reduce the vast oversupply. By means of a real option approach, it is ex-plained how different available forms of subsidies and economic incentives for landlords lift real estate values. The option value representing growth expectations and opportunities is calculated as an observable market value less an estimated fundamental value. Empirical results disclose higher option premiums for cities in Eastern Germany and a strong correlation of the option premium with urban renewal spending.

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Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 11-09.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:11-09

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Related research
Keywords: Real Option; Housing Market; East Germany; Urban Renewal Subsidies;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
R0 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General
H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou, 2000. "Overbuilding: A Game-Theoretic Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 493-522. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou, 2006. "Equilibrium Real Options Exercise Strategies with Multiple Players: The Case of Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-49, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Williams, Joseph T, 1991. "Real Estate Development as an Option," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 191-208, June.
  4. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Clarke, Harry R. & Reed, William J., 1988. "A stochastic analysis of land development timing and property valuation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 357-381, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-14, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Capozza, Dennis & Li, Yuming, 1994. "The Intensity and Timing of Investment: The Case of Land," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 889-904, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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