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Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve

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  • Rolf Scheufele

Abstract

This paper evaluates the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) and its hybrid variant within a limited information framework for Germany. The main interest rests on the average frequency of price re-optimization of firms. We use the labor income share as the driving variable and consider a source of real rigidity by allowing for a fixed firm-specific capital stock. A GMM estimation strategy is employed as well as an identification robust method that is based upon the Anderson-Rubin statistic. We find out that the German Phillips Curve is purely forward looking. Moreover, our point estimates are consistent with the view that firms re-optimize prices every two to three quarters. While these estimates seem plausible from an economic point of view, the uncertainties around these estimates are very large and also consistent with perfect nominal price rigidity where firms never re-optimize prices. This analysis also offers some explanations why previous results for the German NKPC based on GMM differ considerably. First, standard GMM results are very sensitive to the way how orthogonality conditions are formulated. Additionally, model misspecifications may be left undetected by conventional J tests. Taken together, this analysis points out the need for identification robust methods to get reliable estimates for the NKPC.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 10.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:10-08

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Keywords: inflation dynamics; phillips curve; weak instruments; optimal instruments;

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Cited by:
  1. Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Scharff, Juliane & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The Halle Economic Projection Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1461-1472.
  2. Malikane, Christopher, 2013. "A New Keynesian Triangle Phillips Curve," MPRA Paper 43548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Engelbert Stockhammer & Dimitris P. Sotiropoulos, 2012. "The costs of rebalancing the Euro area," Working Papers PKWP1206, Post Keynesian Economics Study Group (PKSG).
  4. Sell, Friedrich L. & Reinisch, David C., 2013. "How do Beveridge and Phillips curves in the euro area behave under the stress of the world economic crisis?," Working Papers in Economics 2013,1, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group.

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