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Modelización De Un Proceso De Elección Secuencial En Cuatro Etapas Del Consumidor Turista

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  • Juan Luis Nicolau

    ()
    (Universidad de Alicante)

Abstract

The aim of this study consists of proposing a sequential and hierarchical decision-making process of tourists divided into four stages: 1) going on holiday (or not); 2) choosing a national of international trip; 3) choosing a specific geographical area; and 4) choosing a type of trip –multidestination vs. single-destination- on this area. This analysis allows us to examine the sundry stages that a tourist follows until s/he chooses a type of trip on a destination, as well as to observe the determining factor in each stage. The empirical application is carried out on a sample of 3,781 individuals, by estimating a Random Parameter Logit Model by applying Bayesian procedures. The results obtained reveal a nested non-independent character of the aforementioned decisions, which confirms the proposed four-stage sequential and hierarchical decisionmaking process. El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en proponer un proceso de decisión secuencial y jerárquico que siguen los turistas vacacionales en cuatro etapas: 1) salir (o no) de vacaciones; 2) elección de un viaje nacional vs. internacional; 3) elección de determinadas áreas geográficas; y 4) elección de la modalidad del viaje -multidestino o de destino fijo- en estas áreas. Este análisis permite examinar las distintas fases que sigue un turista hasta seleccionar una determinada modalidad de viaje en un zona geográfica concreta, así como observar los factores que influyen en cada etapa. La aplicación empírica se realiza sobre una muestra de 3.781 individuos, y estima, mediante procedimientos bayesianos, un Modelo Logit de Coeficientes Aleatorios. Los resultados obtenidos revelan el carácter anidado y no independiente de las decisiones anteriores, lo que confirma el proceso secuencial y jerárquico propuesto.

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File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-2005-17.pdf
File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 2005-17.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2005-17

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Related research

Keywords: Decisiones anidadas; modelización estocástica; marketing turístico Nested decisions; stochastic modelling; tourism marketing;

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