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Un modelo intertemporal de determinación de la balanza por cuenta corriente de la economía española

Author

Listed:
  • Cecilio R. Tamarit Escalona

    (Universitat de València)

  • Vicente Esteve Garcia

    (Universitat de València)

  • Maria Amparo Camarero Olivas

    (Universitat Jaume I)

Abstract

In this paper a Blanchard (1985) type model has been applied to a small open economy to analyse the long-term behaviour of current account balance. It shows, under the assumptions of the model that the current account balance, net-of-government-debt wealth of households, the difference between the home an the foreign growth rates of real GDP, government spending, public debt, the real interest rate, and real exchange rate. This implication of the model is tested using Spanish data over the period 1964-1994. The model nests Ricardian Equivalence and a non-Ricardian alternative hypothesis. En este trabajo se aplica un modelo del tipo planteado en Blanchard (1985) al caso de una economía pequeña y abierta para analizar el comportamiento a largo plazo del saldo de la balanza por cuenta corriente. Asimismo, a partir del modelo, se muestra que el déficit por cuenta corriente, la riqueza de las familias (neta del stock de deuda del gobierno), el diferencial entre la tasa de crecimiento real de la economía nacional y el exterior, el gasto público, el stock de deuda pública, el tipo de interés real y el tipo de cambio real deberían estar cointegrados. Este modelo es aplicado a datos de la economía española para el período 1964-1994. Además, la ecuación obtenida para la cuenta corriente permite contrastar la hipótesis de equivalencia ricardiana.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecilio R. Tamarit Escalona & Vicente Esteve Garcia & Maria Amparo Camarero Olivas, 1996. "Un modelo intertemporal de determinación de la balanza por cuenta corriente de la economía española," Working Papers. Serie EC 1996-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:1996-20
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    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-1996-20.pdf
    File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 1996
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    Cited by:

    1. Vicente Calabuig Alcantara, 1997. "Ineficiencias en las negociaciones entre dos agentes completamente informados," Working Papers. Serie EC 1997-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cuenta corriente; enfoque intertemporal; cointegración Current account; intertemporal approach; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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