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Nonlinear Ppp Under The Gold Standard

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  • Ivan Paya

    ()
    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • David A. Peel

    (University Management School)

Abstract

Hegwood and Papell (2002) conclude on the basis of analysis in a linear framework that long-run purchasing power parity (PPP)\ does not hold for sixteen real exchange rate series, analyzed in Diebold, Husted, and Rush (1991) for the period 1792-1913, under the Gold Standard. Rather, purchasing power parity deviations are mean-reverting to a changing equilibrium -a quasi PPP (QPPP) theory. We analyze the real exchange rate adjustment mechanism for their data set assuming a nonlinear adjustment process allowing for both a constant and a mean shifting equilibrium. Our results confirm that real exchange rates at that time were stationary, symmetric, nonlinear processes that revert to a non-constant equilibrium rate. Speeds of adjustment were much quicker when breaks were allowed.

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File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasad/wpasad-2004-24.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number 2004-24.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2004-24

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Keywords: Purchasing Power Parity; ESTAR; Bootstrapping.;

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References

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  1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  2. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  3. Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
  4. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  5. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ivan Paya & Ioannis A. Venetis & David A. Peel, 2003. "Further Evidence on PPP Adjustment Speeds: the Case of Effective Real Exchange Rates and the EMS," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 421-437, 09.
  7. Diebold, Francis X & Husted, Steven & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Real Exchange Rates under the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1252-71, December.
  8. D. A. Peel & I. A. Venetis, 2003. "Purchasing power parity over two centuries: trends and nonlinearity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 609-617.
  9. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
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  12. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
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  14. Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  16. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Temporal Aggregation Of An Estar Process: Some Implications For Purchasing Power Parity Adjustment," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-25, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  17. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-81, November.
  18. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
  19. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  20. Natalie D. Hegwood & David H. Papell, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity under the Gold Standard," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 72-91, July.
  21. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Paul G. J. O'Connell & Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. ""The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall": How Price Differences Across U.S. Cities Are Arbitraged," NBER Working Papers 6089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2005. "The Process Followed By Ppp Data. On The Properties Of Linearity Tests," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-23, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  2. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Temporal Aggregation Of An Estar Process: Some Implications For Purchasing Power Parity Adjustment," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-25, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  3. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process," Working Papers 565938, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

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