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Assessment Of Voting Situations: The Probabilistic Foundations

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Valenciano

    (Universidad del País Vasco)

  • Annick Laruelle

    (Universidad de Alicante)

Abstract

In this paper we revise the probabilistic foundations of the theory of the measurement of 'voting power' either as success or decisiveness. For an assessment of these features two inputs are claimed to be necessary: the voting procedure and the voters' behavior. We propose a simple model in which the voters' behavior is summarized by a probability distribution over all vote configurations. This basic model, at once simpler and more general that other probabilistic models, provides a clear conceptual common basis to reinterpret coherently from a unified point of view di.erent power indices and some related game theoretic notions, as well as a wider perspective for a dispassionate assessment of the power indices themselves, their merits and their limitations.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Valenciano & Annick Laruelle, 2002. "Assessment Of Voting Situations: The Probabilistic Foundations," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2002-22
    as

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    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasad/wpasad-2002-22.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pradeep Dubey & Abraham Neyman & Robert J. Weber, 1979. "Value Theory without Efficiency," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 513, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Pradeep Dubey & Lloyd S. Shapley, 1979. "Mathematical Properties of the Banzhaf Power Index," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 99-131, May.
    3. Pradeep Dubey & Abraham Neyman & Robert James Weber, 1981. "Value Theory Without Efficiency," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 122-128, February.
    4. Emilio Calvo & J. Javier Lasaga, 1997. "Probabilistic Graphs and Power Indices," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 9(4), pages 477-501, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Federico Valenciano & Annick Laruelle & Ricardo Martínez, 2004. "On The Difficulty Of Making Decisions Within The Eu-25," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-15, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    2. Napel, Stefan & Widgrén, Mika, 2017. "Power measurement as sensitivity analysis: a unified approach," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 345, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    3. Barua, Rana & Chakravarty, Satya R. & Roy, Sonali, 2006. "On the Coleman indices of voting power," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 273-289, May.
    4. Mika Widgrén, 2003. "Enlargements and the Principles of Designing EU - Decision-Making Procedures," CESifo Working Paper Series 903, CESifo.
    5. Manfred Holler & Stefan Napel, 2005. "Local monotonicity of power: Axiom or just a property?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 38(5), pages 637-647, January.
    6. Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "The Impact of Council Voting Rules on EU Decision-Making," Discussion Papers 1162, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    7. Jean-François Caulier, 2010. "On the measurement of Fragmentation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00633613, HAL.
    8. Mika Widgren, 2003. "Power in the Design of Constitutional Rules," European Economy Group Working Papers 23, European Economy Group.
    9. Jean-François Caulier, 2010. "On the measurement of Fragmentation," Working Papers hal-00633613, HAL.
    10. Barua, Rana & Chakravarty, Satya R. & Sarkar, Palash, 2009. "Minimal-axiom characterizations of the Coleman and Banzhaf indices of voting power," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 367-375, November.
    11. Federico Valenciano & Annick Laruelle, 2003. "Potential, Value And Probability," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-01, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    12. Stefan Napel & Mika Widgren, 2004. "Power Measurement as Sensitivity Analysis," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 16(4), pages 517-538, October.

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