Planning under Correlated and Truncated Price and Demand Uncertainties
AbstractThis paper presents a novel approach to handle refinery planning under correlated and truncated random demand and price uncertainties. To compute the expectation of plant revenue, which is the main difficulty for a planning problem under uncertainty, a bivariate normal distribution is used to describe demand and price. Formulae for revenue calculation under correlated and truncated price and demand are derived. It is found that the correlation and truncation of price and demand have major influences on plant net profit. A plan that ignores these factors can be far from optimal. The Type 2 service level or fill rate undercorrelated and truncated random price and demand is derived and efficiently calculated in this paper. Maximum plant net profit that satisfies certain fill rate target can thus be obtained. The proposed approach can be generally applied for modeling other chemical plants under uncertainty.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Institute, International University of Japan in its series Working Papers with number EMS_2012_15.
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 777 Kokusai-cho, Minami Uonuma0-shi, Niigata 949-7277 JAPAN
Web page: http://www.iuj.ac.jp/research/
More information through EDIRC
refinery; planning; uncertainty; correlation; truncation;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kazumi Imai, Office of Academic Affairs).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.