The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Cambodia
AbstractWe numerically examine the impact of the global economic crisis on the Cambodian garment exports as well as its economy by using the conventional CGE model. A seminal aspect of the paper is that we have successfully estimated the curvature of the CET and CES production functions for the Cambodian economy, by using the time series regression method. One of our most striking results indicates that the welfare cost of the impact of the crisis at least reaches 281 million US dollars, thus resulting in a 0.3 percent decrease in GDP with 20.8 thousand direct job losses in the garment industry. Our simulation results also show that the currently ongoing policy in Cambodia only reduces the negative impact of the crisis by 32 million US dollars, and we propose an expansion of the government budget of 304 million US dollars, in order to neutralize the negative impact of the global economic crisis on the Cambodian economy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Institute, International University of Japan in its series Working Papers with number EMS_2010_10.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2010
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://www.iuj.ac.jp/research/
More information through EDIRC
Cambodia; Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model; Global Economic Crisis; Garment Industry; Welfare; Simulation;
Other versions of this item:
- Pisey Khin & Ryuta Ray Kato, 2010. "The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Cambodia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2346-2370.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
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