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Land Allocation in the Presence of Estimation Risk

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  • Lence, Sergio H.
  • Hayes, Dermot J.

Abstract

Estimation risk occurs when parameters relevant for decision making are uncertain. Bayes'Â’ criterion is consistent with expected-utility maximization in the presence of estimation risk. This article examines optimal (BayesÂ’') land allocations and land allocations obtained using the traditional plug-in approach and two alternative decision rules. BayesÂ’' allocations are much better economically than the other allocations when there are few sample observations relative to activities. Calculation of certainty equivalent returns (CERs) with estimation risk is also discussed and illustrated. CERs are typically (and incorrectly) calculated with the plug-in approach. Plug-in CERs may be extremely misleading.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 995.

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Date of creation: 31 Jul 1995
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, July 1995, vol. 20 no. 1, pp. 49-62
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:995

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Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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References

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  1. Chen, Son-Nan & Brown, Stephen J, 1983. " Estimation Risk and Simple Rules for Optimal Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1087-93, September.
  2. Lence, Sergio H. & Hayes, Dermot J., 1994. "Parameter-Based Decision Making Under Estimation Risk: An Application to Futures Trading," Staff General Research Papers 693, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Klein, Roger W, et al, 1978. "Decisions with Estimation Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1363-87, November.
  4. Coles, Jeffrey L. & Loewenstein, Uri, 1988. "Equilibrium pricing and portfolio composition in the presence of uncertain parameters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 279-303, December.
  5. Geweke, John, 1988. "Antithetic acceleration of Monte Carlo integration in Bayesian inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 73-89.
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Cited by:
  1. Pautsch, Gregory R. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Breidt, F. J., 1999. "Optimal Information Acquisition Under a Geostatistical Model," Staff General Research Papers 1517, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Babcock, Bruce A. & Pautsch, Gregory R., 1998. "Moving from Uniform to Variable Fertilizer Rates on Iowa Corn: Effects on Rates and Returns," Staff General Research Papers 1121, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Gregory R. Pautsch & Bruce A. Babcock & F. Jay Breidt, 1998. "Optimal Sampling Under a Geostatistical Model," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 98-wp200, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  4. Hardaker, J. Brian & Lien, Gudbrand D. & Van Asseldonk, Marcel A.P.M. & Richardson, James W. & Hegrenes, Agnar, 2008. "Risk programming and sparse data: how to get more reliable results," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44051, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Wang, Xuecai & Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & McKissick, John C. & Turner, Steven C., 2001. "Optimal Marketing Decisions For Feeder Cattle Under Price And Production Risk," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(03), December.

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