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Parameter-Based Decision Making Under Estimation Risk: An Application to Futures Trading

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  • Lence, Sergio H.
  • Hayes, Dermot J.

Abstract

This study shows how the standard portfolio model of futures trading should be modified when there is less than perfect information about the relevant parameters (estimation risk). The standard and the optimal decision rules for futures trading in the presence of estimation risk are compared and discussed. An operational model of futures trading for use under estimation risk is advanced. In the presence of relevant prior and sample information, the model can be used to optimally blend both types of information. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 693.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 1994
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Finance, March 1994, vol. 49 no. 1, pp. 345-357
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:693

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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Cited by:
  1. Rahman, Shaikh Mahfuzur & Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Turner, Steven C., 2002. "A Bayesian Approach To Optimal Cross-Hedging Of Cottonseed Products Using Soybean Complex Futures," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19708, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Wang, Xuecai & Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & McKissick, John C. & Turner, Steven C., 2001. "Optimal Marketing Decisions For Feeder Cattle Under Price And Production Risk," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(03), December.
  3. Lence, Sergio H. & Hayes, Dermot J., 1995. "Land Allocation in the Presence of Estimation Risk," Staff General Research Papers 995, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. David J. Pannell & Getu Hailu & Alfons Weersink & Amanda Burt, 2008. "More reasons why farmers have so little interest in futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 41-50, 07.
  5. Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2008. "The Shape of the Optimal Hedge Ratio: Modeling Joint Spot-Futures Prices using an Empirical Copula-GARCH Model," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37609, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  6. Raphael Markellos & Terence Mills, 2003. "Asset pricing dynamics," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 533-556.
  7. Hiroyuki Kashima, 2005. "An application of a minimax Bayes rule and shrinkage estimators to the portofolio selection problem under the Bayesian approach," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 523-540, October.
  8. Shi, Wei & Irwin, Scott H., 2005. "A Bayesian Implementation of the Standard Optimal Hedging Model: Parameter Estimation Risk and Subjective Views," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19155, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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