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Rural Population Growth, 1950-1990: The Roles of Human Capital, Industry Structure and Government Policy

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  • Huang, T.
  • Orazem, Peter
  • Wohlgemuth, Darin

Abstract

A human capital investment model of migration is applied to data on changes in county working- age populations. Counties having more highly educated populations grew more slowly. While human capital raises rural incomes, this effect is swamped by the higher returns to human capital in urban markets. This leads to "brain drain" from rural areas. Other results include: 1) Populations grow more rapidly in rural counties that have a diversified employment base. 2) Farm population grows faster (or declines more slowly) in counties with relatively high farm income, and nonfarm populations grow faster in counties with relatively high nonfarm income. However 3) there is no evidence of positive spillover income effects across the farm and nonfarm sectors: higher farm incomes lead to slower nonfarm population growth and vice versa. 4) Measured county government services financed by local taxes or debt have neutral or negative effects on population growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 5061.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2002
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Publication status: Published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics, August 2002, vol. 84, pp. 615-627
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:5061

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Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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  1. Khan, Romana & Orazem, Peter F. & Otto, Daniel M., 1998. "Deriving Empirical Definitions Of Spatial Labor Markets: The Roles Of Competing Versus Complementary Growth," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) 21007, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Timothy R. Wojan, 2000. "The Composition of Rural Employment Growth in the “New Economy”," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 594-605.
  3. Micha Gisser & Alberto D�vila, 1998. "Do Farm Workers Earn Less? An Analysis of the Farm Labor Problem," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 669-682.
  4. Stephan J. Goetz & David L. Debertin, 1996. "Rural Population Decline in the 1980s: Impacts of Farm Structure and Federal Farm Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 517-529.
  5. Mincer, Jacob, 1978. "Family Migration Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 749-73, October.
  6. Christopher Fawson & Dawn Thilmany & John E. Keith, 1998. "Employment Stability and the Role of Sectoral Dominance in Rural Economies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(3), pages 521-533.
  7. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, December.
  8. Huffman, Wallace E & Lange, Mark D, 1989. "Off-Farm Work Decisions of Husbands and Wives: Joint Decision Making," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 471-80, August.
  9. Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 1991. "The Structure of Local Public Finance and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 774-806, August.
  10. Mieszkowski, Peter & Zodrow, George R, 1989. "Taxation and the Tiebout Model: The Differential Effects of Head Taxes, Taxes on Land Rents, and Property Taxes," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 1098-1146, September.
  11. Kislev, Yoav & Peterson, Willis, 1982. "Prices, Technology, and Farm Size," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 578-95, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Sander, William, 2004. "Education and urban household location," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 327-331, March.
  2. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Tobias D. Ketterer, 2012. "Do local amenities affect the appeal of regions in Europe for migrants?," Working Papers, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales 2012-04, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
  3. Daniel C. Monchuk & John Miranowski & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock, 2005. "Analysis of Regional Economic Growth in the U.S. Midwest, An," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-wp392, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  4. Maureen Kilkenny, 2010. "Urban/Regional Economics And Rural Development," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 449-470.
  5. Kopainsky, Birgit & Buser, Benjamin & Rieder, Peter, 2005. "Who Replaces Agriculture's Contribution to Settlement in Lagging Rural Areas? An Integrated Input-Output and Dynamic Simulation Analysis," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark, European Association of Agricultural Economists 24586, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Zhang, Xinxin & Van der Sluis, Evert, 2006. "U.S. Agricultural Labor Out-migration Determinants, 1939-2004," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) 21412, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  7. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert, 2008. "The Geographic Diversity of U.S. Nonmetropolitan Growth Dynamics: A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(2), pages 241-266.
  8. Cho, Seong-Hoon & Kim, Seung Gyu & Clark, Christopher D. & Park, William M., 2007. "Spatial Analysis of Rural Economic Development Using a Locally Weighted Regression Model," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 36(1), April.
  9. Artz, Georgeanne M. & Orazem, Peter F., 2005. "Reexamining Rural Decline: How Changing Rural Classifications and Short Time Frames Affect Perceived Growth," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) 19408, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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