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Organic Crop Prices, or 2x Conventional Ones?

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Author Info

  • Singerman, Ariel
  • Lence, Sergio H.
  • Kimble-Evans, Amanda

Abstract

Cointegration is tested between organic and conventional corn and soybean markets in several locations throughout the U.S. using a unique data set. Organic prices are found to behave like jump processes rather than diffusions, and Monte Carlo methods are developed to compute appropriate critical values for such tests. Findings indicate that no long-run relationship exists between organic and conventional prices, implying that price determination for organic corn and soybean is independent from that for the conventional crops. This suggests that organic corn and soybean prices are driven by demand and supply forces idiosyncratic to the organic market. For each crop, cointegrating spatial relationships are found between prices at the main organic markets. However, such relationships are generally weaker than the ones for the corresponding conventional prices, implying that organic markets are more affected by idiosyncratic shocks than conventional markets. �

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 31544.

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Date of creation: 09 Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:31544

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Email:
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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Related research

Keywords: cointegration; jump process; organic crops; organic production; price analysis; organic price premiums;

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References

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  1. Dimitri, Carolyn & Greene, Catherine R., 2002. "Recent Growth Patterns In The U.S. Organic Foods Market," Agricultural Information Bulletins 33715, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  2. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  4. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  5. Chen, Xiaomei & Wang, H. Holly & Makus, Larry D., 2007. "Production Risk and Crop Insurance Effectiveness: Organic Versus Conventional Apples," SCC-76 Meeting, March 15-17, 2007, Gulf Shores, Alabama 9381, SCC-76: Economics and Management of Risk in Agriculture and Natural Resources.
  6. McBride, William D. & Greene, Catherine R., 2008. "The Profitability of Organic Soybean Production," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6449, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  7. Barry K. Goodwin & Nicholas E. Piggott, 2001. "Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-317.
  8. Singerman, Ariel & Hart, Chad E. & Lence, Sergio H., 2010. "Demand For Crop Insurance By Organic Corn And Soybean Farmers In Three Major Producing States," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 60935, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  9. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  10. Klonsky, Karen & Greene, Catherine R., 2005. "Widespread Adoption of Organic Agriculture in the US: Are Market-Driven Policies Enough?," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19382, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  11. Hanson, James C. & Dismukes, Robert & Chambers, William & Greene, Catherine R. & Kremen, Amy, 2003. "Risk And Risk Management In Organic Agriculture: View Of Organic Farmers," Working Papers 28551, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  12. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  13. Greene, Catherine R. & Kremen, Amy, 2003. "U.S. Organic Farming In 2000-2001: Adoption Of Certified Systems," Agricultural Information Bulletins 33769, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  14. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Singerman, Ariel & Hart, Chad E. & Lence, Sergio H., 2011. "Revenue Protection for Organic Producers: Too Much or Too Little," Staff General Research Papers 33912, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

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