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Toward a Normative Theory of Crop Yield Skewness

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Author Info
Hennessy, David A.

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Abstract

While the preponderance of empirical studies point to negative crop yield skewness in a wide variety of contexts, the literature provides few clear insights on why this is so. The purpose of this paper is to make three points on the matter. We show formally that statistical laws on aggregates do not suggest a normal yield distribution. We explain that whenever the weather-conditioned mean yield has diminishing marginal product, then there is a disposition toward negative skewness in aggregate yields. This is because a high marginal product in bad weather states stretches out the left tail of the yield distribution relative to that of the weather distribution. Turning to disaggregated yields, we decompose unconditional skewness into weather-conditioned skewness plus two other terms and study each in turn.

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Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12960.

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Date of creation: 25 Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12960

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Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
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Related research
Keywords: conditional distribution; crop insurance; negative skewness; spatial heterogeneity; statistical laws.;

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  1. David A. Hennessy, 2007. "Crop Yield Skewness under the Law of Minimum Technology," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 07-wp451, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Weninger, Quinn & Just, Richard, 2002. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," Staff General Research Papers 5064, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Joseph Atwood & Saleem Shaik & Myles Watts, 2003. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed? A Reexamination," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 888-901, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Zanini, Fabio C. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Irwin, Scott H., 2001. "Crop Insurance Valuation Under Alternative Yield Distributions," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18953, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Ker, Alan P & Goodwin, Barry K, 2000. " Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Insurance Rates Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 463-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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