In financial and economic policy circles concerned with public debt in developing countries, a rising debt-GDP ratio is interpreted as a signal of overborrowing, warning of debt defaults if strong fiscal corrections are not adopted in time. This paper shows why this interpretation is incorrect by building a simple model of fiscal policy in which upward-sloping debt paths are observed even though the probability of default is ``almost surely" equal to zero.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number
12701.
Length: 8 pages Date of creation: 27 Nov 2006 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12701
Contact details of provider: Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070 Phone: +1 515.294.6741 Fax: +1 515.294.0221 Email: Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Stephanie Bridges).
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: