How Expectations Affect Managerial Change
AbstractThis study addresses the question how performance expectations affect involuntary managerial change. As we measure performance expectations based on highly efficient bookmaker odds, our specification is less subject to manipulations than the analyst forecasts employed in prior studies. Using match-level data from the German Bundesliga, we empirically investigate to which extent deviations from rational performance expectations affect the probability of involuntary coach dismissal, even after controlling for various measures of actual team performance. We find that coaches who face higher performance expectations are more likely to be fired than peers with similar performance records but lower expectations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU) in its series Working Papers with number 0139.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Expectations; managerial change; aspiration level; betting odds;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-12-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2010-12-11 (Business Economics)
- NEP-CBE-2010-12-11 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-SPO-2010-12-11 (Sports & Economics)
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- Humphreys, Brad & Paul, Rodney & Weinbach, Andrew, 2011. "CEO Turnover: More Evidence on the Role of Performance Expectations," Working Papers 2011-14, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
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