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How Fama Went Wrong: Measures of Multivariate Kurtosis for the Identification of the Dynamics of a N-Dimensional Market

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  • Tanya Araujo
  • João Dias
  • Samuel Eleutério
  • Francisco Louçã

Abstract

This paper investigates the common intuition suggesting that during crises the shape of the financial market clearly differentiates from that of random walk processes. In this sense, it challenges the analysis of the nature of financial markets proposed by Fama and his associates. For this, a geometric approach is proposed in order to define the patterns of change of the market and a measure of multivariate kurtosis is used in order to test deviations from multinormality. The emergence of crises can be measured in this framework, using all the available information about the returns of the stocks under consideration and not only the index representing the market.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2012/21.

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Date of creation: Jul 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp212012

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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  1. Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louca, 2007. "The geometry of crashes. A measure of the dynamics of stock market crises," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 63-74.
  2. Jarrow, Robert & Rudd, Andrew, 1982. "Approximate option valuation for arbitrary stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 347-369, November.
  3. Christine A. Brown & David M. Robinson, 2002. "Skewness and Kurtosis Implied by Option Prices: A Correction," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 279-282.
  4. Norbert Henze, 2002. "Invariant tests for multivariate normality: a critical review," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 467-506, October.
  5. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "A Test for Multivariate Normality in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(2), pages 295-321, April.
  6. Klar, Bernhard, 2002. "A Treatment of Multivariate Skewness, Kurtosis, and Related Statistics," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 141-165, October.
  7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Variable selection, estimation and inference for multi-period forecasting problems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 173-187, September.
  8. Henze, Norbert & Wagner, Thorsten, 1997. "A New Approach to the BHEP Tests for Multivariate Normality," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, July.
  9. Javed Iqbal & Robert Brooks & Don U.A. Galagedera, 2008. "Multivariate tests of asset pricing: Simulation evidence from an emerging market," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  10. R. Vilela Mendes & Tanya Ara\'{u}jo & Francisco Lou\c{c}\~{a}, 2002. "Reconstructing an economic space from a market metric," Papers cond-mat/0211108, arXiv.org.
  11. Corrado, Charles J & Su, Tie, 1996. "Skewness and Kurtosis in S&P 500 Index Returns Implied by Option Prices," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 175-92, Summer.
  12. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2009. "Finite sample multivariate tests of asset pricing models with coskewness," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2008-2021, April.
  13. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "Tests for Skewness, Kurtosis, and Normality for Time Series Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 501, Boston College Department of Economics.
  14. V. Plerou & P. Gopikrishnan & X. Gabaix & L. A. N. Amaral & H. E. Stanley, 2001. "Price fluctuations, market activity and trading volume," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 262-269.
  15. Srivastava, M. S., 1984. "A measure of skewness and kurtosis and a graphical method for assessing multivariate normality," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(5), pages 263-267, October.
  16. Vilela Mendes, R. & Araújo, Tanya & Louçã, Francisco, 2003. "Reconstructing an economic space from a market metric," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 323(C), pages 635-650.
  17. Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louçã, 2007. "The Seismography of Crashes in Financial Markets," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/05, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
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