Adaptive Learning and Complex Dynamics

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data

Adaptive Learning and Complex Dynamics

Author Info

Orlando Gomes () (Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa - Escola Superior de Comunicação Social and UNIDE-ERC)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Orlando Gomes

Abstract

In this paper, we explore the dynamic properties of a group of simple deterministic difference equation systems in which the conventional perfect foresight assumption gives place to a mechanism of adaptive learning. These systems have a common feature: under perfect foresight (or rational expectations) they all possess a unique fixed point steady-state. This long term outcome is obtained also under learning if the quality underlying the learning process is high. Otherwise, when the innefficiency of the learning process is relatively strong, nonlinear dynamics (periodic and aperiodic cycles) arise. The specific properties of each one of the proposed systems is explored both in terms of local and global dynamics. Two macroeconomic models are used to illustrate how the formation of expectations through learning may eventually lead to awkward long term outcomes.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by ISCTE, UNIDE, Economics Research Centre in its series Working Papers with number ercwp2108.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:isc:wpaper:ercwp2108

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://erc.unide.iscte.pt
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Henrique Monteiro) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Henrique Monteiro to update the entry or send us the correct address..

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2009-05-09 (All new papers)
NEP-EVO-2009-05-09 (Evolutionary Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2006. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), pages 284-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
- Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning stability in economics with heterogenous agents," Working Paper Series 120, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 2007-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
- John C Williams & Athanasios Orphanides, 2005. "Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 400, Society for Computational Economics.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 764, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Cellarier, Laurent, 2006. "Constant gain learning and business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2003. "Heterogeneous Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 885-906, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Albert Marcet & Klaus Adam & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2008. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 732.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2007. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2008. "Stock market volatility and learning," Working Paper Series 862, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, . "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
- James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Schonhofer, Martin, 1999. "Chaotic Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-20, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Sobel, Joel, 2000. "Economists' Models of Learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 241-261, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2003. "Learning with bounded memory in stochastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1437-1457, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, . "Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models," Discussion Papers 00/42, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
- Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 1999. "Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 221, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Honkapohja, S. & Mitra, K., 1999. "Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 456, Department of Economics.
Bullard James, 1994. "Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 468-485, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- James Bullard, 1991. "Learning equilibria," Working Papers 1991-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
Gauthier, Stephane, 2002. "Determinacy and Stability under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 354-374, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Gauthier, S., 1999. "Determinacy and Stability under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria," DELTA Working Papers 1999-22, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Gauthier, S., 1999. "Determinacy and Stability Under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 99a46, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Cars Hommes & Gerhard Sorger, 1997. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-051/1, Tinbergen Institute.

Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About 1000 archives contribute their bibliographic data to RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-26.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.