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In or Out? The Welfare Costs of EMU Membership

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Author Info
Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes () (ISCTE - Department of Economics, UNIDE-ERC and DINÂMIA)

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Abstract

Denmark, Sweden, and the UK have repeatedly refused to join the European and Monetary Union (EMU). Surprisingly, there is very little work on the welfare consequences of the loss of monetary policy flexibility for these countries. This paper fills this void by providing a framework to evaluate quantitatively the economic costs of joining the EMU. Using a two country dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices we investigate the economic implications of the loss of monetary policy flexibility associated with the EMU for each country. The main contribution of our general equilibrium approach is that we can evaluate the effects of monetary policy in terms of welfare. Our findings suggest that these economies may experience sizable welfare losses as a result of joining the EMU. Results show that the cost associated with the loss of the monetary policy flexibility is higher in the presence of persistence government consumption shocks and small trade shares with the EMU.

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File URL: http://erc.unide.iscte.pt/wpi/ERCwp1408.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by ISCTE, UNIDE, Economics Research Centre in its series Working Papers with number ercwp1408.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:isc:wpaper:ercwp1408

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary Policy; Euro; UK; Sweden; Denmark;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J & McGrattan, Ellen R, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(3), pages 533-63, July.
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  4. Daniel Gros & Carsten Hefeker, 2002. "One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 247-262, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," KOF Working papers 08-190, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Christopher Adam & David Cobham & Eric Girardin, 2005. "Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985-2003," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 497-516, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2008. "A Modern Reconsideration of the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 6712, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Tommaso Monacelli, 2000. "Relinquishing Monetary Policy Independence," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 483, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2007. "What if the UK or Sweden had joined the euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a Global VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 55-87. [Downloadable!]
  12. Martine Carre & Fabrice Collard, 2000. "Monetary Union: A Welfare Based Approach," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0526, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2009. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Economics Series Working Papers 442, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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