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Quantitive Inflation Perceptions and Exectations of Italian Consumers

Author

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  • Marco Malgarini

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

Abstract

Since February 2003 ISAE collects quantitative inflation opinions, within its monthly survey on Italian consumers. Data confirms the severe overestimation of inflation already emerged in previous studies. Quantitative replies are in line with more traditional qualitative evaluations, indicating that overestimation is not a sort of random outcome derived from casual answers. A first explanation calls for inadequate knowledge of inflation statistics: however, scarce information does not explain per se overestimation. Indeed, overestimation varies across personal characteristics and it is strongly correlated with assessments on economic conditions, with those being more optimistic generally showing lower inflation opinions. It is possible that given a scarce statistical knowledge consumers attribute to high inflation an “economic distress” mainly determined by slow growth of disposable income and psychological factors linked to socio-economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Malgarini, 2008. "Quantitive Inflation Perceptions and Exectations of Italian Consumers," ISAE Working Papers 90, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    • Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:90
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    Cited by:

    1. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2019. "Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission consumer survey," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2019, Bank of Finland.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2019. "Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission consumer survey," Research Discussion Papers 10/2019, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Expectations; Survey data;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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