Consumers Sentiment and Cognitive Macroeconometrics Paradoxes and Explanations
AbstractUsing data from the Business Surveys Unit of the European Commission as a long-running-continental-scale experiment, this paper examines how, and how accurately, people assess economic systems. Data show both commonsense (e.g. people know the past better than the future) and puzzling results (e.g. there is a systematic bias in forecasts). The former support the reliability of the surveys, the latter are in sharp contrast with the standard maintained hypothesis of a world populated by calculating and unemotional maximizers. The dualism of behavior may be fruitfully explored via cognitive psychology, according to which both logic and emotions systematically drive people’s choices.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) in its series ISAE Working Papers with number 66.
Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Beliefs; survey research; consumer sentiment; cognitive economics.;
Other versions of this item:
- Maurizio Bovi, 2005. "Consumers Sentiment and Cognitive Macroeconometrics Paradoxes and Explanations," Macroeconomics 0512002, EconWPA.
- C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-02-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBE-2007-02-24 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-NEU-2007-02-24 (Neuroeconomics)
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