The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: a Survey
AbstractA recent notable development in the empirical macroeconomics literature has been the rapid growth of papers that build structural models, which include a number of frictions and shocks, and which are confronted with the data using sophisticated full-information econometric approaches, often using Bayesian methods. A widespread assumption in these estimated models, as in most of the macroeconomic literature in general, is that economic agents' expectations are formed according to the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH). Various alternative ways to model the formation of expectations have, however, emerged: some are simple refinements that maintain the REH, but change the information structure along different dimensions, while others imply more significant departures from rational expectations. I review here the modeling of the expectation formation process and discuss related econometric issues in current structural macroeconomic models. The discussion includes benchmark models assuming rational expectations, extensions based on allowing for sunspots, news, sticky information, as well as models that abandon the REH to use learning, heuristics, or subjective expectations.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 121301.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Expectations formation; DSGE models; Rational expectations; Adaptive learning; Survey expectations; New Bayesian macroeconometrics;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bruce Preston, 2005.
"Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
- Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," Working Paper 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Yasuo Hirose, 2008. "Equilibrium Indeterminacy and Asset Price Fluctuation in Japan: A Bayesian Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 967-999, 08.
- Reis, Ricardo, 2005.
CEPR Discussion Papers
5053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2008.
"Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
122247000000002352, David K. Levine.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, 02.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2009. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0921, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2008. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Stefan Avdjiev, 2011. "News driven business cycles and data on asset prices in estimated DSGE models," BIS Working Papers 358, Bank for International Settlements.
- Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
- Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2004.
"On the indeterminacy of new-Keynesian economics,"
Working Paper Series
0323, European Central Bank.
- Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2004. "On the Indeterminacy of New-Keynesian Economics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 152, Society for Computational Economics.
- Roger E. A. Farmer & Andreas Beyer, 2004. "On the Indeterminacy of New Keynesian Economics," 2004 Meeting Papers 187, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2012.
"Endogenous Persistence in an estimated DSGE Model Under Imperfect Information,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1287-1312, December.
- Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2010. "Endogenous Persistence in an Estimated DSGE Model under Imperfect Information," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0310, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2010. "Endogenous Persistence in an Estimated DSGE Model under Imperfect Information," CDMA Working Paper Series 201002, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Fabio Milani & Ashish Rajrhandari, 2012. "Observed Expectations, News Shocks, and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 121305, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Fabio Milani & Ashish Rajbhandari, 2012. "Expectation Formation and Monetary DSGE Models: Beyond the Rational Expectations Paradigm," Working Papers 111212, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2011.
"Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?,"
w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012.
"Identification of animal spirits in a bounded rationality model: An application to the euro area,"
Economics Working Papers
2012-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012. "Identification of Animal Spirits in a Bounded Rationality Model: An Application to the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 37399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sacht, Stephen & Jang, Tae-Seok, 2012. "Identification of Animal Spirits in a Bounded Rationality Model: An Application to the Euro Area," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62071, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raf Wouters & Sergey Slobodyan, 2009. "Estimating a medium–scale DSGE model with expectations based on small forecasting models," 2009 Meeting Papers 654, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Marshall, Alfred, 1890. "The Principles of Economics," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number marshall1890.
- Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2009.
"The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models,"
Carleton Economic Papers
09-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 22 May 2012.
- Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
- Oleg Korenok, 2005.
"Empirical Comparison of Sticky Price and Sticky Information Models,"
0501, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Korenok, Oleg, 2008. "Empirical comparison of sticky price and sticky information models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 906-927, September.
- Oleg Korenok, 2005. "Empirical Comparison of Sticky Price and Sticky Information Models," Macroeconomics 0510004, EconWPA.
- Adam, Klaus & Padula, Mario, 2003.
"Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States,"
Working Paper Series
0222, European Central Bank.
- Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics And Subjective Expectations In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 13-25, 01.
- Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2002. "Inflation Dynamics and Subjective Expectations in the United States," CSEF Working Papers 78, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 02 Jun 2009.
- Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, June.
- Poirier, Dale J., 1998. "Revising Beliefs In Nonidentified Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(04), pages 483-509, August.
- Milani, Fabio, 2009.
"Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy,"
Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 827-837, November.
- Fabio Milani, 2009. "Expectations, Learning, and the Changing Relationship between Oil Prices and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 080923, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
- Jochen Michaelis, 2013. "Und dann werfen wir den Computer an – Anmerkungen zur Methodik der DSGE-Modelle," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201323, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jennifer dos Santos).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.