IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipt/iptwpa/jrc113743.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

PESETA III: Agro-economic analysis of climate change impacts in Europe

Author

Abstract

This report presents the agro-economic analysis within the PESETA III project, focusing on the effects of climate change on crop yields and related impacts on EU agricultural production, trade, prices, consumption, income, and welfare. For this purpose the CAPRI modelling system was employed, using a combination of a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). For the climate change related EU-wide biophysical yield shocks, input of the agricultural biophysical modelling of the PESETA III project was used, which provided crop yield changes under water-limited conditions based on high-resolution bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX regional climate models, taking also gridded soil data into account. As agricultural markets are globally connected via world commodity trade, it is important for the agro-economic analysis to also consider climate change related yield effects outside the EU. The analysis, therefore, was complemented with biophysical yield shocks in non-EU countries as provided by the AgCLIM50 project. To simulate and assess the response of key economic variables to the changes in EU and non-EU biophysical crop yields, one reference scenario (without yield shocks) and two specific climate change scenarios were constructed, one scenario with yield shocks but without enhanced CO2 fertilization and another scenario with yield shocks under the assumption of enhanced CO2 fertilization. The projection horizon for the scenarios is 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Thomas Fellmann, 2018. "PESETA III: Agro-economic analysis of climate change impacts in Europe," JRC Research Reports JRC113743, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc113743
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC113743
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert S. Nowak, 2017. "Average is best," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(2), pages 101-102, February.
    2. Blanco, María & Ramos, Fabien & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Martínez, Pilar & Fumagalli, Davide & Ceglar, Andrej & Fernández, Francisco J., 2017. "Climate change impacts on EU agriculture: A regionalized perspective taking into account market-driven adjustments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 52-66.
    3. Mihaly Himics & Marco Artavia & Sophie Hélaine & Ole Boysen, 2014. "Calibrating the CAPRI and ESIM models to the mid-term commodity market outlook of the European Commission," JRC Research Reports JRC72882, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Hans van Meijl & Petr Havlik & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Elke Stehfest & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Benjamin Bodirsky & Michiel van Dijk & Jonathan Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Florian Humpe, 2017. "Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50)," JRC Research Reports JRC106835, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Wolfgang Britz & Karin Holm-Müller, 2009. "Trading schemes for greenhouse gas emissions from European agriculture: A comparative analysis based on different implementation options," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 90(3), pages 287-308.
    6. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    7. Heinz Peter Witzke & Markus Kempen & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Torbjörn Jansson & Paolo Sckokai & John Helming & Thomas Heckelei & Daniele Moro & Axel Tonini & Thomas Fellmann, 2009. "Regional Economic Analysis of Milk Quota Reform in the EU," JRC Research Reports JRC53116, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Alexander Gocht & Pavel Ciaian & Maria Bielza & Jean-Michel Terres & Norbert Röder & Mihaly Himics & Guna Salputra, 2017. "EU-wide Economic and Environmental Impacts of CAP Greening with High Spatial and Farm-type Detail," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 651-681, September.
    9. Thomas Fellmann & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Heinz Peter Witzke & Torbjorn Jansson & Diti Oudendag & Alexander Gocht & David Verhoog, 2012. "Agricultural GHG emissions in the EU: an exploratory economic assessment of mitigation policy options," JRC Research Reports JRC69817, Joint Research Centre.
    10. Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Thomas Fellmann & Franz Weiss & Peter Witzke & Jesús Barreiro-Hurlé & Mihaly Himics & Torbjörn Jansson & Guna Salputra & Adrian Leip, 2016. "An economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture (EcAMPA 2)," JRC Research Reports JRC101396, Joint Research Centre.
    11. Samuel S. Myers & Antonella Zanobetti & Itai Kloog & Peter Huybers & Andrew D. B. Leakey & Arnold J. Bloom & Eli Carlisle & Lee H. Dietterich & Glenn Fitzgerald & Toshihiro Hasegawa & N. Michele Holbr, 2014. "Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition," Nature, Nature, vol. 510(7503), pages 139-142, June.
    12. Christoph Müller & Richard D. Robertson, 2014. "Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 37-50, January.
    13. Benjamin Van Doorslaer & Peter Witzke & Ingo Huck & Franz Weiss & Thomas Fellmann & Guna Salputra & Torbjörn Jansson & Dusan Drabik & Adrian Leip, 2015. "An economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture," JRC Research Reports JRC93434, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Himics, Mihaly & Fellmann, Thomas & Barreiro-Hurlé, Jesús & Witzke, Heinz-Peter & Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio & Jansson, Torbjörn & Weiss, Franz, 2018. "Does the current trade liberalization agenda contribute to greenhouse gas emission mitigation in agriculture?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 120-129.
    15. Alison Burrell & Emanuele Ferrari & Aida González Mellado & Mihaly Himics & Jerzy Michalek & Shailesh Shrestha & Benjamin Van Doorslaer, 2011. "Potential EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement: Impact Assessment, Volume 1: Main results," JRC Research Reports JRC67394, Joint Research Centre.
    16. W. A. Obermeier & L. W. Lehnert & C. I. Kammann & C. Müller & L. Grünhage & J. Luterbacher & M. Erbs & G. Moser & R. Seibert & N. Yuan & J. Bendix, 2017. "Reduced CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands under more extreme weather conditions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(2), pages 137-141, February.
    17. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    18. Thomas Fellmann & Peter Witzke & Franz Weiss & Benjamin Van Doorslaer & Dusan Drabik & Ingo Huck & Guna Salputra & Torbjörn Jansson & Adrian Leip, 2018. "Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 451-468, March.
    19. Shrestha, Shailesh & Ciaian, Pavel & Himics, Mihay & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin, 2013. "Impacts of Climate Change on EU Agriculture," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, September.
    20. Trevor F. Keenan & David Y. Hollinger & Gil Bohrer & Danilo Dragoni & J. William Munger & Hans Peter Schmid & Andrew D. Richardson, 2013. "Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 499(7458), pages 324-327, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jordan Hristov & Andrea Toreti & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Dentener Frank & Thomas Fellmann & Christian Elleby & Andrej Ceglar & Davide Fumagalli & Stefan Niemeyer & Iacopo Cerrani & Lorenzo Panarello, 2020. "Analysis of climate change impacts on EU agriculture by 2050: JRC PESETA IV project – Task 3," JRC Research Reports JRC119632, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Enrico Bernardini & Ivan Faiella & Luciano Lavecchia & Alessandro Mistretta & Filippo Natoli, 2021. "Central banks, climate risks and sustainable finance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 608, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Thomas Fellmann & Peter Witzke & Franz Weiss & Jordan Hristov & Mihaly Himics & Jesus Barreiro-Hurle & Manuel Gomez Barbero & Adrian Leip, 2020. "Economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture: A closer look at mitigation options and regional mitigation costs (EcAMPA 3)," JRC Research Reports JRC120355, Joint Research Centre.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hans van Meijl & Petr Havlik & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Elke Stehfest & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Benjamin Bodirsky & Michiel van Dijk & Jonathan Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Florian Humpe, 2017. "Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50)," JRC Research Reports JRC106835, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Robert M'barek & Jesus Barreiro-Hurle & Pierre Boulanger & Arnaldo Caivano & Pavel Ciaian & Hasan Dudu & Maria Espinosa Goded & Thomas Fellmann & Emanuele Ferrari & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma & Celso Gorri, 2017. "Scenar 2030 - Pathways for the European agriculture and food sector beyond 2020," JRC Research Reports JRC108449, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Torbjörn Jansson & Ida Nordin & Fredrik Wilhelmsson & Peter Witzke & Gordana Manevska‐Tasevska & Franz Weiss & Alexander Gocht, 2021. "Coupled Agricultural Subsidies in the EU Undermine Climate Efforts," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 1503-1519, December.
    4. Himics, Mihaly & Fellmann, Thomas & Barreiro-Hurlé, Jesús & Witzke, Heinz-Peter & Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio & Jansson, Torbjörn & Weiss, Franz, 2018. "Does the current trade liberalization agenda contribute to greenhouse gas emission mitigation in agriculture?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 120-129.
    5. Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Thomas Fellmann & Peter Witzke & Franz Weiss & Jordan Hristov & Mihaly Himics & Jesus Barreiro-Hurle & Manuel Gomez Barbero & Adrian Leip, 2020. "Economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture: A closer look at mitigation options and regional mitigation costs (EcAMPA 3)," JRC Research Reports JRC120355, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Fellmann, Thomas & Witzke, Heinz Peter & Weiss, Franz & Perez Dominguez, Ignacio & Barreiro-Hurle, Jesus & Himics, Mihaly & Salputra, Guna & Jansson, Torbjörn, 2017. "Assessing Impacts Of Activating The Technological Emission Mitigation Potential Of EU Agriculture," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 260918, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    8. Mihaly Himics & Thomas Fellmann & Jesus Barreiro‐Hurle, 2020. "Setting Climate Action as the Priority for the Common Agricultural Policy: A Simulation Experiment," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 50-69, February.
    9. Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Thomas Fellmann & Franz Weiss & Peter Witzke & Jesús Barreiro-Hurlé & Mihaly Himics & Torbjörn Jansson & Guna Salputra & Adrian Leip, 2016. "An economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture (EcAMPA 2)," JRC Research Reports JRC101396, Joint Research Centre.
    10. Maria Blanco & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Guna Salputra & Pilar Martinez, 2015. "Extension of the CAPRI model with an irrigation sub-module," JRC Research Reports JRC99828, Joint Research Centre.
    11. Martin Henseler & Ruth Delzeit & Marcel Adenäuer & Sarah Baum & Peter Kreins, 2020. "Nitrogen Tax and Set-Aside as Greenhouse Gas Abatement Policies Under Global Change Scenarios: A Case Study for Germany," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(2), pages 299-329, July.
    12. Palazzo, Amanda & Vervoort, Joost M. & Mason- D'Croz, Daniel & Rutting, Lucas & Havlik, Petr & Islam, Shahnila & Bayala, Jules & Kadi, Hame Kadi & Thornton, Philip & Zougmore, Robert, "undated". "Interpreting the Shared Socio-economic Pathways under Climate Change for the ECOWAS region through a stakeholder and multi-model process," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246970, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    13. Confidence Duku & Carlos Alho & Rik Leemans & Annemarie Groot, 2022. "IFAD Research Series 72: Climate change and food system activities - a review of emission trends, climate impacts and the effects of dietary change," IFAD Research Series 320722, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    14. Purola, Tuomo & Lehtonen, Heikki & Liu, Xing & Tao, Fulu & Palosuo, Taru, 2018. "Production of cereals in northern marginal areas: An integrated assessment of climate change impacts at the farm level," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 191-204.
    15. Thomas Fellmann & Peter Witzke & Franz Weiss & Benjamin Van Doorslaer & Dusan Drabik & Ingo Huck & Guna Salputra & Torbjörn Jansson & Adrian Leip, 2018. "Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 451-468, March.
    16. Robinson, Sherman & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Islam, Shahnila & Sulser, Timothy B. & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju & Gueneau, Arthur & Pitois, Gauthier & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2015. "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3:," IFPRI discussion papers 1483, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Hans Jensen & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Thomas Fellmann & Paul Lirette & Jordan Hristov & George Philippidis, 2019. "Economic Impacts of a Low Carbon Economy on Global Agriculture: The Bumpy Road to Paris," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, April.
    18. Cenacchi, Nicola & Lim, Youngah & Sulser, Timothy B. & Islam, Shahnila & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Robertson, Richard D. & Kim, Chang-Gil & Wiebe, Keith D., 2016. "Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation in the Republic of Korea to 2050: An integrated assessment," IFPRI discussion papers 1586, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Ewa Kiryluk-Dryjska & Agnieszka Baer-Nawrocka & Obinna Okereke, 2022. "The Environmental and Climatic CAP Measures in Poland vs. Farmers’ Expectations—Regional Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-13, June.
    20. Gallé, Johannes & Katzenberger, Anja, 2023. "Indian agriculture under climate change: The competing effect of temperature and rainfall anomalies," Ruhr Economic Papers 1002, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agriculture; climate change;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc113743. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publication Officer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipjrces.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.