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Difusão Biotecnológica: A Adoção dos Transgênicos na Agricultura

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  • Junior Ruiz Garcia
  • José Eustáquio Ribeiro Vieira Filho

Abstract

As técnicas de engenharia genética são fundamentais na moderna produção agrícola e, ao mesmo tempo, demandam regulação em vários níveis. A difusão do plantio de orga¬nismo geneticamente modificado (OGM) tem crescido desde 1996, notadamente nos Estados Unidos, na Argentina e no Canadá. No Brasil, a partir de 1997, a produção de soja transgênica se iniciou de forma ilegal e com lenta taxa de adoção. A legalização do plantio de soja em 2003 intensificou a difusão da biotecnologia no Brasil. O presente estudo procurou apresentar modelos epidemiológicos de difusão: exponencial de fonte central e logístico de contágio. O exemplo que melhor representa o processo de difusão seria o descrito por uma função logística. Embora o trabalho não faça uma discussão aprofundada dos parâmetros desta função, entende-se que o comportamento da curva logística é muito mais complexo, dado que não existe equilíbrio nos valores parametrizados ao longo do tempo. The genetic engineering techniques are essential in modern agriculture and, at the same time, demand regulation on several levels. The diffusion of planting genetically modified organisms (GMOs) has grown since 1996, notably in the United States, Argentina and Canada. In Brazil, the production of genetically modified soybeans began illegally and with a slow adoption rate in 1997. The legalization of genetically modified soybean planting in 2003 intensified the spread of biotechnology in Brazil. This study presents two epidemic models of technology diffusion: exponential (central source) and logistic (contagion). The results obtained suggest that the diffusion process is best described by a logistic function. Although the study does not discuss in detail the function’s parameters, it is understood that the trajectory of the logistic curve is fairly complex, since there is no equilibrium for fixed values over time.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1937.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1937

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