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Considerações sobre a Alocação de Riscos na Concessão do Trem de Alta Velocidade entre Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo e Campinas

Author

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  • Maria Martha M. C. Cassiolato
  • Ronaldo Coutinho Garcia

Abstract

Este trabalho avalia a alocação de riscos entre o governo e o concessionário operador no projeto do trem de alta velocidade (TAV) entre Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo e Campinas. O modelo de concessão proposto em 2010 pelo governo federal para transferir a operação do TAV à iniciativa privada foi revisto em 2012, sendo a principal diferença entre eles a alocação de riscos de demanda e de construção entre governo e concessionário. O trabalho examina as duas propostas, considerando os procedimentos recomendados na literatura. Também discute quantitativamente como os potenciais custos destes riscos afetam a lucratividade do concessionário, além de apresentar algumas propostas de melhorias para o modelo vigente, na tentativa de disseminar boas práticas de alocação de riscos para os projetos de infraestrutura no Brasil. This work analyses the risk allocation between government and concessionaire in the High Speed Train (HST) Project from Rio de Janeiro to São Paulo and Campinas. The concession model proposed by the government to transfer the HST operation to private firms in 2010 was revised in 2012, with the main difference between them been on the risk allocation between government and concessionaire related to demand and construction costs. This work assess these two context of HST proposal considering the best practices recommended in the literature, discusses quantitatively how the potential costs of these risks affect the concessionaire’s profits and presents some improvements to the current concession model, in an attempt to disseminate good risk allocation practices for infrastructure projects in Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Martha M. C. Cassiolato & Ronaldo Coutinho Garcia, 2014. "Considerações sobre a Alocação de Riscos na Concessão do Trem de Alta Velocidade entre Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo e Campinas," Discussion Papers 1920, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1920
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