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Panorama do Pré-Sal: Desafios e Oportunidades

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  • Giorgio Romano Schutte
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    Abstract

    O objetivo deste texto é analisar as implicações econômicas, políticas e estratégicas das descobertas de grandes reservas de petróleo e gás nas províncias do pré-sal em 2006. Para tanto, são apresentados os vários desafios a serem enfrentados para garantir que o ciclo do pré-sal possa contribuir com um salto de desenvolvimento do país: a soberania nacional sobre as áreas distantes da costa brasileira; a relação com os interesses internacionais; a qualificação do parque industrial por meio de exigências de conteúdo local, justificadas pela escala e duração no tempo do empreendimento; a formação do preço e o risco de crowding out do etanol; e os riscos do "rentismo" e do excesso de entrada de dólares. As estratégias adotadas no campo da política industrial e por meio da introdução de um novo marco regulatório para as áreas do pré-sal durante os governos dos presidentes Lula e Dilma refletem concepções que dialogam com o debate sobre o neodesenvolvimetismo. A nova realidade do pré-sal ainda redimensiona a Petrobras como grande player internacional de energia. Palavras-chave: pré-sal; energia; Brasil; neodesenvolvimentismo; conteúdo local. The objective of this study is to analyze the economic, political and strategic implications of the discovery of huge oil and gas reserves in the presalt provinces in 2006. For this purpose we present the main challenges that must be confronted to make sure that the presalt cycle will contribute to the countries development: the national sovereignty over the areas, far way from the cost; the interaction with international interest; the upgrading of the industrial capacity through the use of local content requirements, justified by the scale and duration of the enterprise; the price formation and the risk of crowing out of ethanol; and the risk of rentier mentality and excess of dollar inflows. During the Lula and Dilma administration specific industrial strategies and a new legal framework were introduced to respond to these challenges. These policies are drive by a neodevelopmental perspective. The new reality of the presalt also means a repositioning of Petrobras as one of the main players in the international energy world. Keywords: presalt; energy; Brazil; new development strategies; local content.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1791.

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    Length: 78 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1791

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