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Investimentos dos Governos Subnacionais no Brasil: Estimação e Análise por Modelos de Espaço de Estado

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  • Rodrigo Octávio Orair
  • Wesley de Jesus Silva
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    Abstract

    carência de séries agregadas de alta frequência e os problemas não triviais que devem ser enfrentados para estimação destas séries criam obstáculos à pesquisa aplicada nas finanças públicas subnacionais. Os modelos de espaço de estados (MEEs) fornecem um arcabouço para lidar com uma ampla gama destes problemas, e as técnicas que derivam desta abordagem, como a desagregação temporal e a previsão contemporânea, são utilizadas neste trabalho para estimar as séries mensais dos investimentos dos governos subnacionais no período 2002-2011. O arcabouço de MEE também provê um instrumento para análise destas séries. Entre os resultados encontrados, pode-se destacar a estimação endógena de componentes cíclicos coincidentes com os ciclos eleitorais, tanto nos investimentos do governo estadual quanto do governo municipal, provendo-se evidências empíricas para a literatura sobre ciclos políticos eleitorais, inéditas em séries agregadas de alta frequência das finanças públicas subnacionais. As técnicas utilizadas também podem ser facilmente adaptáveis às demais séries relevantes. O objetivo do trabalho é apresentar um arcabouço metodológico tanto para estimação de séries atualizadas em alta frequência quanto para análise do desenvolvimento das séries das finanças públicas subnacionais, fornecendo-se um instrumental útil para o monitoramento da política fiscal e para a pesquisa macroeconômica aplicada. Palavras-chave: investimento público; modelo de espaço de estados; finanças públicas subnacionais. There are many problems involved in estimating high frequency series for subnational governments. Space State Model (SSM) is a framework capable of handling some of these problems. The techniques that emerge from this approach (temporal disaggregation and nowcasting) are used to estimate monthly series for capital investments by subnational governments in Brazil during 2002-2011. SSM are also used to analyze the dynamic properties of time series. One of the most interesting results is the newly evidence of electoral cycles on investments of both municipalities and states in Brazil. These techniques might be easily generalized for other relevant series. The main objective of this work is to present a methodological framework for estimating and analyzing the development of high frequency series for Brazilians subnational governments. It offers a useful instrument for monitoring fiscal policy and for applied macroeconomic research. Keywords: public investment; space state model; subnational public finance.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1771.

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    Length: 50 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1771

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